Các Yếu Tố Ảnh Hưởng Đến Giá Ngô CBOT

Ngô CBOT (Mã hợp đồng: ZCE) là sản phẩm luôn được yêu thích trong nhóm giao dịch nông sản – nhóm hàng hóa có khối lượng giao dịch nhiều nhất thế giới. Để hiểu rõ hơn về sản phẩm và đưa ra những nhận định đúng, Nhà Đầu tư cần biết được các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến giá Ngô CBOT, cụ thể được diễn giải dưới đây!

Những yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến giá ngô CBOT

Giá trị đồng Dollas

Dollas là đồng tiền dự trữ của thế giới, chính vì lẽ đó đồng đô la thường có thể quy định hướng đi của giá cả hàng hóa. Ngô là loại ngũ cốc được giao dịch toàn cầu. Hoa Kỳ là nước sản xuất và xuất khẩu ngô hàng đầu thế giới. Khi USD giảm, các nước nhập khẩu sẽ có xu hướng mua ngô nhiều hơn dẫn đến giá ngô tăng vì khi giá trị của đồng đô la giảm so với các loại tiền tệ khác, cần ít tiền tệ khác để mua ngô hơn so với khi giá trị của đồng đô la tăng. 

Qua phân tích trên, giá ngô có biến động tỷ lệ nghịch với đồng USD:
Giá ngô có xu hướng giảm khi giá USD tăng.
Giá ngô có xu hướng tăng khi giá USD giảm.

Mất cân đối cung cầu

Nhu cầu chính là yếu tố ảnh hưởng chính đến giá cả. Nếu cung lớn hơn cầu thì giá ngô chắc chắn sẽ giảm. Ngược lại nếu cầu lớn hơn cung thì giá ngô sẽ tăng. Do vậy việc cung cầu mất cân đối ít hay nhiều sẽ làm cho giá cả của ngô biến động mạnh hay yếu.

Nhu cầu của Trung Quốc

Ngô có thể sản xuất ra Ethanol là phụ gia của xăng được dùng ở hàm lượng thấp (10% hoặc ít hơn), xăng này giảm ô nhiễm và giảm cả mức tiêu thụ xăng được gọi là ” nhiên liệu sinh học”.

Trung Quốc là nước tiêu thụ năng lượng lớn nhất thế giới và là nước nhập khẩu xăng dầu lớn nhất. Nhu cầu năng lượng của đất nước dự kiến ​​sẽ vẫn còn rất lớn khi nền kinh tế tiếp tục phát triển. Trung Quốc đang tìm kiếm các nguồn năng lượng rẻ hơn và thân thiện với môi trường hơn, và nhiên liệu sinh học sẽ đóng một vai trò nào đó trong kế hoạch này.

Có thể nói, Trung Quốc là một trong những nhà nhập khẩu ngô lớn nhất thế giới. Bất kỳ sự tăng trưởng chậm lại nào ở Trung Quốc đều có thể gây khó khăn cho giá ngô.

Giá dầu thô

Bởi vì ngô ngày càng được sử dụng để làm nhiên liệu, nên mối quan hệ của nó với giá dầu là không thể bỏ qua. Giá dầu thô tăng có thể sẽ làm tăng nhu cầu về nhiên liệu sinh học khi người tiêu dùng chuyển sang các lựa chọn thay thế rẻ hơn.

Bên cạnh đó dầu thô được xem như là nguyên liệu chính trong việc sản xuất. Các mặt hàng nông nghiệp được sử dụng trong sản xuất nhiên liệu có tương quan giá cao với dầu thô. Khi giá dầu thô tăng cao kèm với nhu cầu sử dụng các sản phẩm được làm với nguyên liệu là ngô thấp thì nhu cầu nhập khẩu nguyên liệu nông sản sẽ ít kèm với nguồn cung dồi dào. Giá của Ngô sẽ giảm.

Thị trường Ethanol

Ngô đang đóng một vai trò ngày càng tăng trong sản xuất ethanol, do đó nhu cầu về loại phụ gia nhiên liệu này có thể có tác động lớn đến giá ngô. Sản phẩm phụ từ quá trình sản xuất ethanol chứa nhiều chất đạm, giàu protein tạo ra nguồn thức ăn bổ dưỡng cho chăn nuôi. Nhờ vậy, nhu cầu sử dụng ngô gần như lên gấp đôi.

Chính phủ Mỹ trợ cấp rất nhiều cho nông dân trồng ngô để thúc đẩy sản xuất ethanol và nông dân đưa ra quyết định trồng loại cây nào dựa trên trợ cấp. Nếu nhu cầu ethanol giảm, thì thị trường sẽ dư thừa nguồn cung ngô và giá có thể sẽ giảm xuống.

Thời tiết

Sự thay đổi vừa phải của các kiểu thời tiết có thể làm tăng số ngày nắng nóng gay gắt trong mùa trồng trọt. Những đợt nắng nóng này có thể làm giảm đáng kể sản lượng cây trồng và tạo ra các đợt tăng giá đột biến. Mưa nhiều, lũ lụt cũng sẽ làm giảm sản lượng thu hoạch, dẫn đến giảm nguồn cung ngô trên thị trường.

Nhu cầu tiêu thụ

Nhu cầu tiêu thụ ngô ảnh hưởng bởi các yếu tố thay đổi như nhân khẩu học, tăng trưởng kinh tế hay chế độ ăn uống và tiêu dùng. Khi dân số toàn cầu gia tăng, đặc biệt các nước đang phát triển sẽ làm tăng đáng kể nhu cầu tiêu thụ thịt, cá, gia cầm trên thị trường từ đó thúc đẩy nhu cầu tiêu thụ ngô do ngô là thức ăn chính cho chăn nuôi.

Giao dịch Ngô CBOT

Đặc tả sản phẩm Ngô

Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi tự hào là một trong những công ty Giao dịch hàng hóa hàng đầu tại thị trường tài chính Việt Nam, được sự cho phép và bảo lãnh của Sở Giao Dịch Hàng Hóa Việt Nam. Có bất kỳ thắc mắc nào về thị trường hay sản phẩm Ngô CBOT, bạn đều có thể liên hệ chúng tôi với hotline 0933.907.909 hoặc truy cập website https://hanghoaphaisinh.vn/ để tìm hiểu thêm thông tin.


CÔNG TY CỔ PHẦN GIAO DỊCH HÀNG HÓA GIA CÁT LỢI CHI NHÁNH GÒ VẤP

Địa chỉ: 114/54 Đường Tô Ngọc Vân, Phường 15, Gò Vấp, TP.HCM

Website: https://hanghoaphaisinh.vn/

Hotline: 0933.907.909

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