Liệu thế giới có trở về thời điểm như một thập kỷ trước – siêu chu kỳ hàng hóa khi giá đồng cho đến giá ngô đang tăng trong bối cảnh các nền kinh tế mở cửa trở lại?
Siêu chu kỳ hàng hóa trước và hiện tại
Sự nổi lên như một cường quốc kinh tế của Trung Quốc đã kích hoạt siêu chu kỳ và diễn ra cuộc bùng nổ cuối cùng của thị trường hàng hóa tính đến nay đã một thập kỷ.
Kỳ vọng về một siêu chu kỳ hàng hóa mới xuất hiện khi một đợt tăng giá trên diện rộng đã đẩy giá các nguyên liệu thô quan trọng bao gồm đồng, gỗ, quặng sắt lên mức cao nhất mọi thời đại cùng với các mặt hàng nông nghiệp.
Nhưng siêu chu kỳ hàng hóa là gì, điều gì làm cho nó khác với các chu kỳ kinh doanh ngắn hạn?
Siêu chu kỳ hàng hóa là gì?
Tuy không có định nghĩa thống nhất về siêu chu kỳ, nhưng từ này thường được dùng để mô tả thời kỳ mà giá hàng hóa tăng trên xu hướng dài hạn trong khoảng từ 10 – 35 năm.
Sự tăng giá kéo theo sự sụt giảm về nhu cầu trong khoảng thời gian này, cuối cùng cung bắt kịp cầu. Kết quả là một chu kỳ đầy đủ có thể kéo dài từ 20 đến 70 năm.
Theo Capital Economics, siêu chu kỳ hàng hóa tăng giá thường được kích hoạt bởi “một số loại cơ cấu thúc đẩy nhu cầu đủ lớn ở mức độ toàn cầu” và nguồn cung đáp ứng chậm. Xét về tài nguyên thiên nhiên, thường có độ trễ giữa cung và cầu vì có thể mất hơn 10 năm để xây dựng, hoàn thiện và phát triển một mỏ dầu cỡ lớn.
Bao nhiêu siêu chu kỳ đã diễn ra?
Tính đến thời điểm hiện tại, các nhà kinh tế đã xác định 4 giai đoạn tăng giá hàng hóa.
Lần đầu tiên trùng với giai đoạn Mỹ nổi lên như một cường quốc kinh tế những năm 1880.
Đợt thứ hai đi cùng giai đoạn tái vũ trang những năm 1930 và tiếp sau đó bước vào thời kỳ tái thiết sau chiến tranh thế giới thứ hai.
Siêu chu kỳ hàng hóa thứ ba diễn ra trong giai đoạn cú sốc giá dầu những năm 1970, điều này gián tiếp thúc đẩy giá các mặt hàng khác do tăng chi phí sản xuất.
Đợt bùng nổ giá gần đây nhất diễn ra trong thời kỳ công nghiệp hóa nhanh chóng của Trung Quốc bắt đầu từ cuối những năm 1990. Giai đoạn này cũng chứng kiến sự tăng giá mạnh của các mặt hàng nông nghiệp gây ra cuộc khủng hoảng lương thực 2007 – 2008.
Siêu chu kỳ từ Trung Quốc
Đầu những năm 2000, tốc độ và quy mô đô thị hóa của Trung Quốc khiến ngành tài nguyên thiên nhiên phải bất ngờ. Chính vì sức chi tiêu khổng lồ cho cơ sở hạ tầng và thành lập các thành phố lớn bắt kịp tốc độ phát triển đô thị hóa đã khiến các nhà sản xuất và khai thác dầu lớn đã phải vật lộn để đáp ứng nhu cầu nguyên liệu thô vô độ của Trung Quốc.
Kết quả của sự kiện trên là giá đồng, vốn chỉ ở mức 2.000 USD/tấn trong giai đoạn 1990 tăng cao kỷ lục lên trên 10.000 USD. Trong khi đó dầu đạt 140 USD/thùng. Thị trường hàng hóa rơi vào vòng xoáy sụt giảm khi cung cuối cùng bắt kịp cầu vào năm 2011.
Siêu chu kỳ khác dần xuất hiện?
Đại dịch Covid-19 đã mở ra một kỷ nguyên mới của tăng trưởng thâm dụng hàng hóa khi các chính phủ chú trọng nhiều hơn vào tạo việc làm và tính bền vững của môi trường hơn là tập trung vào ổn định tài chính như cuộc khủng hoảng toàn cầu năm 2009. Bởi lẽ đó mà đối với các nhà đầu cơ hàng hóa như Goldman Sachs, siêu chu kỳ khác đang dần xuất hiện là ĐÚNG! Đồng thời, việc giá thấp trong nhiều năm đã khiến cho các nhà sản xuất hạn chế chi tiêu vào các dự án mới và đầu tư mở rộng, khiến nguồn cung bị siết chặt.
“Tôi tin rằng chúng ta đang bước vào một siêu chu kỳ”, Ivan Glasenberg, Giám đốc điều hành của Glencore một trong những công ty giao dịch hàng hóa lớn nhất thế giới cho biết.
Theo một số ngân hàng ở phố Wall cho rằng nhu cầu dầu sẽ tiếp tục vượt xa tốc độ tăng trưởng nguồn cung trong những năm tới, có khả năng tạo nên đợt tăng giá cuối cùng trước khi xe điện khiến lượng tiêu thụ đạt đỉnh.
Trung Quốc – cường quốc của thế giới với tình trạng nhu cầu và nhiên liệu sinh học đang thúc đẩy giá ngũ cốc và hạt dầu, nhu cầu ngô dường như đang ở một quỹ đạo mới khi nước này tìm kiếm nguồn nhập khẩu làm thức ăn cho gia súc. Đồng thời, sự tập trung vào năng lượng tái tạo ở một số quốc gia đang chú ý đến nhiên liệu sinh học được sản xuất từ các nguồn nông nghiệp.
Nghi ngờ về siêu chu kỳ đang đến?
Có thể chứ! Đối với nhiều nhà kinh tế, hiệu suất tăng chóng mặt của hàng hóa từ mức thấp năm 2020 do COVID-19 chỉ là sự đi lên theo chu kỳ được thúc đẩy bởi gói tài chính – tiền tệ khổng lồ đối phó với đại dịch.
Họ cho rằng đang thiếu một câu chuyện cơ cấu thuyết phục như những lần thúc đẩy siêu chu kỳ trước đây và sự chuyển đổi năng lượng xanh toàn cầu sẽ không xuất hiện đủ nhanh để bù đắp tác động của việc tăng trưởng chậm lại của Trung Quốc, nơi các biện pháp kích thích thời đại dịch đã bị rút lại.
Những người hoài nghi cho rằng sự tăng giá sẽ tập trung vào một nhóm nhỏ kim loại công nghiệp như đồng, coban, niken, vốn là chìa khóa cho quá trình chuyển đổi năng lượng và các dự án mới đang bị thiếu hụt nguồn cung.
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doktoranta
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Pcz
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