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Nhận định xu hướng giá 26/10 – 30/10/2020:Giá cà phê giảm do lo ngại về nhu cầu do sự bùng phát trở lại của Covid trên khắp thế giới.

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PHÂN TÍCH CƠ BẢN ĐƯỜNG SBE

Kết phiên giao dịch thứ 6 ngày 23/10/2020;  Hợp đồng Tương lai Cà phê Hoa Kỳ loại C – 12/20 (KCZ0) đóng cửa tại giá 105.38 USd/lbs giảm  -1.24% so với phiên trước đó, và giảm -1.54% so với tuần trước.

Ngày thứ Tư (21/10)  giá cà phê arabica xuống mức thấp nhất trong 3 tháng gần đây. Sự gia tăng các ca nhiễm Covid trên khắp thế giới có thể khiến các chính phủ áp dụng các biện pháp cách ly mới hạn chế  nhu cầu và khả năng tiêu thụ cà phê. Tại Italia , hôm thứ Sáu, báo cáo kỷ lục mới về 19.143 trường hợp nhiễm Covid. Pháp đã báo cáo kỷ lục 41.622 trường hợp Covid mới hôm thứ Năm ( 22/10 ), chính phủ Pháp đã mở rộng lệnh giới nghiêm với 46 triệu người được yêu cầu ở nhà từ 9 giờ tối đến 6 giờ sáng. Ngoài ra, lần đầu tiên kể từ tháng 7, các trường hợp Covid mới của Hoa Kỳ đã vượt quá 70.000 trường hợp vào thứ Năm ( 22/10). Virus Covid hiện đã lây nhiễm cho 42,117 triệu người trên toàn cầu, với số ca tử vong vượt quá 1,144 triệu.

Nguồn cung cà phê arabica vẫn dồi dào sau khi CeCafe báo cáo xuất khẩu cà phê nhân tháng 9 của Brazil tăng 11,5% so với cùng kỳ lên 3,5 triệu bao, mức cao nhất từ trước đến nay trong tháng 9.

Tổ chức Cà phê Quốc tế (ICO) vào ngày 2 tháng 10 đã nâng ước tính thặng dư cà phê toàn cầu 2019/20 lên 1,54 triệu bao từ ước tính trước đó là 952.000 bao.

Đồng real Brazil suy yếu là một yếu tố tiêu cực đối với giá cà phê arabica khi đồng real giảm xuống mức thấp nhất 4-1 / 2 tháng so với đồng USD vào ngày 2 tháng 10. Đồng real yếu hơn khuyến khích các nhà sản xuất cà phê Brazil bán xuất khẩu. Safras & Mercado ngày 2/10 cho biết đồng real suy yếu so với đồng đô la và doanh số bán cà phê mạnh mẽ của nông dân có thể đẩy xuất khẩu cà phê năm 2020/21 của Brazil lên mức kỷ lục 41,8 triệu bao.

Giá cà phê cũng chịu áp lực trước những dấu hiệu về nguồn cung cà phê lớn hơn từ Brazil sau khi Conab ngày 22/9 cho biết họ thấy sản lượng cà phê arabica của Brazil 2020 ở mức 47,4 triệu bao, tăng 38% so với cùng kỳ và cao hơn mức ước tính trước đó là 46 triệu bao.

Tuy nhiên giá cà phê arabica được ủng hộ do lo ngại điều kiện khô hạn của Brazil sẽ hạn chế sản lượng cà phê. Các khu vực trồng cà phê ở Minas Gerais đã phải đối mặt với nhiệt độ trên mức trung bình và thiếu mưa đáng kể trong năm tháng qua, điều này đã làm cạn kiệt độ ẩm của đất và nguồn nước để tưới. Trung tâm Dự báo Khí hậu Hoa Kỳ ngày 24/9 cho biết một kiểu thời tiết La Nina đã xuất hiện ở Thái Bình Dương, có thể dẫn đến lượng mưa dưới mức trung bình ở Brazil trong Qúy 4.

Nguồn cung thấp hơn trên toàn cầu có tác động tích cực đến giá cà phê sau khi ICO vào ngày 1 tháng 10 báo cáo rằng xuất khẩu cà phê toàn cầu từ tháng 10 đến tháng 8 đã giảm -5,6% so với cùng kỳ ở mức 116,54 triệu bao.

Giá cà phê còn được sự hỗ trợ từ lượng hàng tồn kho giảm dần. Tồn kho cà phê arabica do ICE giám sát hôm thứ Hai tuần trước đã giảm xuống mức thấp nhất trong 20 năm là 1,096 triệu bao.

PHÂN TÍCH KỸ THUẬT

Trong nhận định tuần trước chúng tôi phân tích biểu đồ W  và nhận định khi giá phá vỡ mô hình InsideBar trên biểu đồ tuần tại vùng 104.79 thì giá sẽ trở lại vùng 92.80.  Diễn biến giá trong tuần cho thấy giá đã không phá vỡ được vùng 104.79; tuy nhiên đà giảm đang còn yếu. Trong tuần này; chúng tôi vẫn kiên định với nhận định trên; ưu tiên những chiến lược SHORT.

Quan sát biểu đồ dài hạn ( W – tuần ) chúng ta thấy:

Lưu ý:

  • Tất cả các kịch bản được xây dựng để tham khảo không mang tính khuyến nghị mua- bán. Nhà đầu tư tự đưa ra quyết định cũng như chịu trách nhiệm với chính quyết định của mình.
  • Tất cả các chiến lược giao dịch cần xem thêm tín hiệu xác nhận trước khi vào lênh. .
  • Tuân thủ tuyệt đối quản lý vốn tỉ lệ đòn bẩy tối đa là 1:20 và đặt STP < 3% tài khoản.

Chúc quý nhà đầu tư giao dịch hiệu quả!

LÊ VIẾT HÙNG

( tổng hợp từ nhiều nguồn)

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