Phân Bón Tăng Giá Ảnh Hưởng Đến Giá Cây Trồng

Hầu hết giá phân bón đều tăng trong năm 2021, đặc biệt là phân lân và urê, do nhu cầu mạnh và chi phí đầu vào cao hơn. Giá kali nhìn chung vẫn ổn định do nguồn cung dồi dào. Giá phân bón dự kiến ​​sẽ cao hơn trung bình hơn một phần tư vào năm 2021 so với năm ngoái, trước khi hạ nhiệt vào năm 2022. Rủi ro đối với dự báo bao gồm tốc độ mở rộng công suất gieo trồng nông sản, căng thẳng địa chính trị trong trung hạn.

Biểu đồ giá phân bón theo tháng

Nhu cầu toàn cầu tăng lên

Nhu cầu mạnh mẽ từ các vùng trồng cây trọng điểm là động lực khiến giá phân bón tăng cao. Giá hàng hóa nông nghiệp, chẳng hạn như ngô và đậu tương, đã tăng trong bối cảnh nguồn cung thắt chặt hơn và nhu cầu mạnh mẽ. Doanh thu trang trại cao hơn đã làm tăng diện tích cây trồng và tỷ lệ sử dụng các chất dinh dưỡng quan trọng như Phốt Phát và Kali. Tuy nhiên, hầu hết tỷ lệ giá phân bón so với cây trồng dự kiến ​​sẽ thấp hơn vào năm 2021 so với vài năm trước.

Tỷ lệ giá phân bón trên cây trồng

Chi phí đầu vào cao hơn

Giá phân bón cũng được hỗ trợ bởi chi phí đầu vào cao hơn. Chi phí nguyên liệu thô phốt phát, đặc biệt là Lưu Huỳnh và Amoniac, đã tăng mạnh do nhà máy lọc dầu cắt giảm do hạn chế COVID-19, nguồn cung hạn chế. Chi phí nguyên liệu urê cũng tăng, bao gồm cả giá khí đốt tự nhiên tăng vào đầu năm 2021 do thời tiết lạnh bất thường. Giá LNG giao ngay tại Châu Á và Châu Âu và Tây Hoa Kỳ đạt mức cao kỷ lục vào đầu năm 2021.

Biểu đồ chi phí nguyên liệu thô

Rủi ro đối với triển vọng

Mặc dù có nhiều khả năng đáp ứng nhu cầu mạnh mẽ, nhưng có thể mất một thời gian để tăng sản lượng, điều này có thể cung cấp hỗ trợ giá tiếp tục trong ngắn hạn. Các mức thuế đối kháng do Hoa Kỳ áp đặt đối với phốt phát nhập khẩu từ Maroc và Nga đã làm gián đoạn dòng chảy thương mại. Hơn nữa, có những dấu hiệu cho thấy các hành động thương mại tương tự có thể được áp dụng cho các khoản trợ cấp bị cáo buộc là không công bằng đối với Urê và Amoni Nitrat. Căng thẳng địa chính trị ở Belarus và Nga có thể làm tăng giá Kali, nhưng các chính sách môi trường nghiêm ngặt ở Trung Quốc có thể làm chậm nhập khẩu kali.


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