Mặt hàng Cao Cao
Phân tích cơ bản
Ca cao ICE NY tháng 7 ( CCN21 ) vào thứ Hai đóng cửa tăng +46 (+ 1,96%), và ca cao ICE London tháng 7 ( CAN21 ) đóng cửa tăng +13 (+ 0,81%).
Giá ca cao hôm thứ Hai ổn định ở mức cao hơn vừa phải sau khi đồng đô la suy yếu gây ra một số đợt giảm giá ca cao kỳ hạn. Giá ca cao cũng có sự hỗ trợ cơ bản từ số liệu thống kê về đại dịch được cải thiện và hy vọng nhu cầu ca cao sẽ mạnh hơn trong nửa cuối năm nay. Cơ quan y tế Viện Koch của Đức cho biết số ca tử vong do Covid hàng ngày ở Đức giảm xuống còn 18 vào Chủ nhật, ít nhất trong 8 tháng. Mức trung bình trong 7 ngày của các ca nhiễm Covid mới của Hoa Kỳ vào thứ Sáu đã giảm xuống mức thấp nhất trong 14-1 / 2 tháng là 13,530.
Giá ca cao gần đây suy yếu do lo ngại về nguồn cung ca cao toàn cầu dồi dào. Chính phủ Bờ Biển Ngà hôm thứ Hai báo cáo rằng lượng giao hàng tích lũy hạt ca cao đến các cảng Bờ Biển Ngà trong thời gian từ ngày 1 tháng 10 đến ngày 13 tháng 6 đã tăng + 8,7% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái ở mức 2,25 triệu tấn. Ngoài ra, Tổ chức Ca cao Quốc tế (ICCO) vào ngày 31 tháng 5 đã nâng ước tính sản lượng ca cao toàn cầu 2020/21 lên mức kỷ lục 5,02 triệu tấn, tăng 6,3% so với cùng kỳ. ICCO cũng nâng ước tính thặng dư ca cao năm 2020/21 toàn cầu lên +165.000 tấn so với dự báo tháng 2 là + 102.000 tấn.

Một yếu tố giảm giá khác đối với ca cao là triển vọng vụ mùa ca cao bội thu ở Tây Phi. Nông dân trồng ca cao ở Bờ Biển Ngà và Ghana đã báo cáo rằng điều kiện trồng trọt thuận lợi báo hiệu tốt cho vụ thu hoạch giữa vụ mới bắt đầu.
Nguồn cung ca cao hiện tại đang dồi dào sau khi tồn kho ca cao do ICE giám sát tăng lên mức cao nhất 3-3 / 4 năm vào thứ Tư tuần trước. Cũng có những nghi ngờ về nhu cầu sau khi Gepex, một tập đoàn xuất khẩu ca cao bao gồm sáu trong số những nhà máy xay ca cao lớn nhất thế giới, báo cáo hôm thứ Hai rằng chế biến ca cao tháng 5 giảm -35% so với cùng kỳ xuống 31.751 tấn.
Nhu cầu ca cao toàn cầu gần đây đã thay đổi. Hiệp hội Bánh kẹo Quốc gia báo cáo rằng chế biến ca cao Bắc Mỹ quý 1 tăng 2,0% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái lên 117.956 tấn, thấp hơn kỳ vọng là + 2,5% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Ngoài ra, Hiệp hội Ca cao Châu Âu báo cáo sản lượng chế biến ca cao quý 1 của Châu Âu giảm -3% so với cùng kỳ năm trước xuống mức thấp nhất trong 4 năm là 357.815 tấn, mức giảm lớn hơn so với kỳ vọng là -2%. Về mặt tích cực, sản lượng chế biến cacao châu Á Q1 tăng + 3,1% lên 213,858, cao hơn kỳ vọng là + 0,3%.

Phân tích kĩ thuật

Thị trường Ca cao đã có những nhịp hồi phục và phản ứng giá tốt sau khi trải qua nhịp giảm rất mạnh từ vùng 2553$ về lại vùng 2339$ tương ứng 8,41%.
Vùng 2339$ là hỗ trợ rất tốt của thị trương theo khung ngày nên việc Ca cao phản ứng tốt tại vùng giá này góp phần củng cố thêm vị thế hồi phục trong ngắn hạn.
Vùng kháng cự ngắn hạn của thị trường vùng 2422 có thể sẽ lên test lại trong các phiên sắp tới.
Hỗ trợ 2339$ và 2365$ vẫn có thể canh mua lên được nếu giá có quy hồi về.
Mặt Hàng Bông Sợi
Tin Tức
Giá bông tiếp tục giảm mạnh khi tồn kho bông đạt chuẩn trên sàn ICE US được báo cáo tăng từ 163,737 lên 166,225 hợp đồng.
Dữ liệu của CFTC cho thấy vị thế ròng của quỹ tiền được quản lý bằng bông ở mức 37,945 hợp đồng mua ròng vào ngày 6/8. Đó là mức tăng hàng tuần lên 2.933, do mở rộng hợp đồng mở.
Bản đánh giá thị trường bông hàng tuần cho thấy 1.751 kiện được bán trong tuần với giá trung bình là 81,68 cent / lb. Con số này cao hơn 79,41 cent trong tuần trước và cao hơn mức doanh số 56,19 cent so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Chỉ số Cotlook A cho ngày 10 tháng 6 cao hơn 150 điểm ở mức 95,55 cent. AWP trong tuần là 72,36 cent / lb.
USDA Crop Progress: Tiến độ mùa vụ bông và lúa mỳ chi tiết từng bang ngày 13/06
Báo cáo Tiến độ mùa vụ – Crop Progress của Bộ Nông nghiệp Hoa Kỳ (USDA) trong tuần kết thúc ngày 13/06/2021 tại các bang sản xuất chính:


Phân tích kĩ thuật

Đồ thị Cotton sau khi test lại vùng kháng cự rất cứng của khung D1 vùng 87.8$ đã có 1 nhịp điều chỉnh giá rất sâu quay trở về test lại vùng trendline xu hướng tăng.
Cotton nếu muốn giữ nhịp tăng này cần phải giữ được giá ở trên vùng 83$ thêm vài phiên nữa. Trong ngắn hạn bông sẽ không nhịp hồi phục nào quá đáng kể mà sẽ thiên về tích luỹ lại để hấp thụ lực bán hiện tại.
Kháng cự hiện tại : 87.8 , 86
Hỗ trợ hiện tại : 84 , 83.1
Lưu ý:
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