TIN TỨC
Bán hàng ròng đậu tương của Mỹ tăng nhờ nhu cầu mạnh mẽ của Trung Quốc
– Dữ liệu của USDA cho thấy doanh số xuất khẩu ròng đậu tương của Mỹ trong tuần tính đến ngày 5 tháng 8 đạt 96,900 tấn, cao hơn đáng kể so với mức 11,400 tấn ghi nhận trong tuần trước, do nhu cầu phục hồi từ Trung Quốc.
– Số liệu hàng tuần vượt quá kỳ vọng của các nhà phân tích thị trường, dao động từ âm 100,000 tấn đến 50,000 tấn cho vụ cũ.
– Trong khi đó, USDA báo cáo doanh thu ròng hàng tuần cho niên vụ 2021/22 ở mức 1.12 triệu tấn, cũng cao hơn thị trường mong đợi với các nhà phân tích dự đoán từ 550,000 tấn đến 700,000 tấn.
– Mức tăng của vụ cũ chủ yếu được thúc đẩy bởi 84,500 tấn đến Trung Quốc, 18,600 tấn đến Nhật Bản và 15,300 tấn đến Colombia, trong khi bán hàng ròng niên vụ 2021/22 chủ yếu chuyển đến các nước giấu tên (643,400 tấn), Trung Quốc (328,000 tấn) và Đài Loan (79,500 tấn).
Trung Quốc cắt giảm nhập khẩu đậu tương niên vụ 20/2021
– Trung Quốc đã giảm dự báo nhập khẩu đậu tương và nhu cầu ép đậu nội địa trong năm 2020/21, do tỷ suất lợi nhuận ép đậu kém làm hạn chế quan tâm mua và việc sử dụng khô đậu tương trong thức ăn chăn nuôi giảm, bản cập nhật hàng tháng cho Ước tính cung và cầu nông nghiệp của Trung Quốc (CASDE) cho thấy hôm thứ Năm.
– Nhập khẩu đậu tương của Trung Quốc cho niên vụ 2020/21 dự kiến đạt 98.6 triệu tấn, giảm 1.84 triệu tấn so với 100.44 triệu tấn ước tính trong tháng trước. “Lý do chính là tỷ suất lợi nhuận các nhà máy ép đậu đã giảm kể từ tháng Bảy. Khối lượng ép đậu cũng giảm, trong khi tồn kho đậu tương nhập khẩu đã tăng lên mức cao nhất trong năm nay. Trong khi đó, các nhà nhập khẩu của Trung Quốc hoãn việc mua hàng với kỳ vọng rằng giá vụ mùa mới sẽ giảm sau vụ thu hoạch của Hoa Kỳ”, báo cáo cho biết.
– Tiêu thụ đậu tương dự kiến sẽ giảm xuống còn 113.26 triệu tấn, so với 116.26 triệu tấn được ước tính trong báo cáo trước đó, do dự báo nhu cầu ép đậu thấp hơn 3 triệu tấn xuống còn 95 triệu tấn.
– Lợi nhuận của người chăn nuôi lợn đã giảm đáng kể kể từ tháng 3 năm nay, và tỷ lệ sử dụng khô đậu tương trong thức ăn chăn nuôi cũng giảm, do đó, tiêu thụ đậu tương thấp hơn so với dự kiến trước đây.
– Trong khi đó, Bộ Nông nghiệp và Nông thôn Trung Quốc (MARA) cắt giảm ước tính sản lượng dầu ăn trong năm 2020/21 xuống còn 28.51 triệu tấn, giảm 520.000 tấn so với dự báo trước đó, do sản lượng vừng – cây dầu chính của nước này bị ảnh hưởng bởi trận lũ lụt vào tháng Bảy ở Hà Nam.
– Đối với niên vụ mới, Trung Quốc duy trì dự báo về sản lượng và nhập khẩu đậu tương trong năm 2021/22 lần lượt là 18.65 triệu tấn và 102 triệu tấn. Đồng thời, ước tính nhập khẩu và sản xuất ngô niên vụ 2021/22 cũng không được điều chỉnh lần lượt là 20 triệu tấn và 271.81 triệu tấn.
Dự trữ khô đậu tương của Trung Quốc ở mức thấp nhất 2 tháng do tác động của Covid-19
– Dự trữ khô đậu tương tại các nhà máy ép ở Trung Quốc đã giảm xuống mức thấp nhất trong hai tháng vào tuần trước khi các công ty sản xuất thức ăn chăn nuôi và chăn nuôi tăng tốc thu mua do lo ngại về lệnh đóng cửa mới và các hạn chế đối với sự bùng phát của biến chủng Delta.
– Dự trữ đậu tương giảm xuống còn 910,000 tấn vào ngày 9 tháng 8, giảm 120,000 tấn so với tuần trước và thấp hơn 110,000 tấn so với mức trung bình 3 năm là 1.02 triệu tấn, theo dữ liệu từ Trung tâm Thông tin Dầu và Ngũ cốc Quốc gia Trung Quốc (CNGOIC).
– “Sản lượng đậu tương nghiền tăng nhẹ, sản lượng khô đậu tương tăng tương ứng, nhưng do ảnh hưởng của Covid-19, các doanh nghiệp sản xuất thức ăn chăn nuôi đã tăng tốc thu mua. Do đó, lượng khô đậu tương tồn kho giảm đáng kể”, báo cáo của CNGOIC cho biết.
– Khối lượng ép đậu tăng lên 1.78 triệu tấn vào tuần trước, tăng nhẹ 60.000 tấn so với tuần trước nhưng giảm 260.000 tấn so với mức 2.04 triệu tấn được ghi nhận vào cùng thời điểm năm ngoái.
– Tồn kho đậu tương tăng 340,000 tấn lên 6.97 triệu tấn trong tuần tính đến ngày 8 tháng 8, do khối lượng đậu tương đến kho cao hơn mức nghiền.
– Cuối cùng, dự trữ dầu đậu trong nước vẫn gần như ổn định ở mức 910,000 tấn, giảm nhẹ 20,000 tấn so với tuần trước và tăng 50,000 tấn so với tháng.
WASDE: Dự trữ đậu tương vụ cũ của Mỹ vượt quá kỳ vọng
– USDA đã nâng ước tính dự trữ đậu tương cuối kỳ của Mỹ vào năm 2020/21 lên 160 triệu giạ (4.35 triệu tấn), tăng 25 triệu giạ (680,387 tấn) so với bản cập nhật tháng 7, vượt xa kỳ vọng thị trường đã đặt ra ở mức 149 triệu giạ (4.1 triệu tấn).
– Cơ quan này cho biết sự gia tăng này diễn ra do “ép dầu đậu giảm 20 triệu giạ do dự kiến nhu cầu khô đậu trong nước thấp hơn và giảm so với năm trước và xuất khẩu khô đậu giảm”.
– Mặt khác, USDA giữ nguyên tồn kho cuối kỳ của Mỹ cho vụ mùa mới không đổi ở mức 155 triệu giạ (4.22 triệu tấn), nhưng thấp hơn 5 triệu giạ (136,078 tấn) so với mức 160 triệu giạ (4.35 triệu tấn) mà các nhà phân tích dự đoán.
– Ước tính sản lượng đậu tương năm 2021/22 của Mỹ giảm 66 triệu giạ so với dự báo hồi tháng 7, đạt 4.34 tỷ giạ (118.1 triệu tấn), do sản lượng đậu tương giảm. Số liệu này thấp hơn mức 4.37 tỷ giạ (118.8 triệu tấn) mà các nhà phân tích mong đợi.
– Trên toàn cầu, dự báo tồn kho cuối vụ mới đã tăng 1.66 triệu tấn lên 96.15 triệu tấn, cao hơn kỳ vọng của thị trường là 95 triệu tấn, do nhập khẩu giảm và nhu cầu nội địa giảm từ Trung Quốc trong năm 2021/22.
– Ước tính cho các kho dự trữ cuối vụ cũ cũng được nâng 1.33 triệu tấn lên 92.82 triệu tấn, vượt mức 90.6 triệu tấn mà các nhà phân tích dự đoán.
GÓC NHÌN KỸ THUẬT
Đậu tương
- Sau khi bật tăng mạnh tại vùng hỗ trợ ngắn hạn 1331 – 1337 thì đậu tương đã hồi phục mạnh về vùng 1357 – 1366 và thậm chí là phá vỡ vùng kháng cự này.
- Link tham khảo bài phân tích trước: https://dautuhanghoa.vn/phan-tich-dau-tuong-kho-dau-tuong-va-dau-dau-tuong-ngay-12-08-2021-hay-can-trong-voi-bao-cao-wasde-toi-nay/#dau-tuong
- Hiện tại thì đậu tương đã tiếp cận vùng kháng cự cứng 1380 – 1392 và khả năng cao là sẽ có sự điều chỉnh giảm tại vùng này. Để chuẩn bị cho sự điều chỉnh giảm tại vùng này thì đậu tương có thể sẽ lưỡng lự từ 1 – 2 ngày để tích lũy tại vùng kháng cự cứng này => Chờ thêm tín hiệu giảm để vào vị thế bán ngắn hạn thì sẽ an toàn hơn.
- Nếu điều chỉnh giảm thì đậu tương có thể tìm về vùng 1361 – 1368 và sâu hơn là vùng 1356 – 1360.
- Tuy nhiên, vẫn nên cẩn trọng rằng lực mua vẫn còn đang mạnh nên vùng kháng cự này hoàn toàn có thể bị phá vỡ và tiếp tục tăng lên đến vùng 1400 – 1414 mới xảy ra sóng điều chỉnh giảm, nhưng khả năng này khá là thấp. Nhà đầu tư hãy lưu ý điều này.
Khô đậu tương
- Sau khi bật tăng tại vùng hỗ trợ tiềm năng 350 – 352.70 thì khô đậu đã trở lại vùng 356 – 358.70 trong ngắn hạn như dự đoán.
- Link tham khảo bài phân tích trước: https://dautuhanghoa.vn/phan-tich-dau-tuong-kho-dau-tuong-va-dau-dau-tuong-ngay-12-08-2021-hay-can-trong-voi-bao-cao-wasde-toi-nay/#kho-dau-tuong
- Hiện tại thì khô đậu đang có xu hướng tăng lên đến vùng 364 – 366.50 => Ưu tiên các vị thế mua thì sẽ an toàn hơn.
- Khô đậu vừa mới hình thành một vùng hỗ trợ ngắn hạn 355 – 357.80 hợp lưu với đường trendline tăng và đây là một vùng tiềm năng cho vị thế mua của khô đậu.
- Ngoài ra, cũng không loại trừ khả năng rằng giá khô đậu có thể quay trở lại vùng hỗ trợ tiềm năng 350 – 352.70, nhưng khả năng này là thấp vì lực mua ở hiện tại đang khá tốt.
Dầu đậu tương
- Dầu đậu đã giảm mạnh về vùng 61 – 61.50 sau khi chạm vùng kháng cự tiềm năng 62.45 – 63 như dự đoán.
- Link tham khảo bài phân tích trước: https://dautuhanghoa.vn/phan-tich-dau-tuong-kho-dau-tuong-va-dau-dau-tuong-ngay-12-08-2021-hay-can-trong-voi-bao-cao-wasde-toi-nay/#dau-dau-tuong
- Sau khi chạm vùng 61 – 61.50 đồng thời cũng trùng với khoảng thời gian phát hành báo cáo WASDE của USAD, đã tác mạnh tích cực lên dầu đậu khiến giá bật tăng mạnh trong thời gian ngắn.
- Xu hướng chính trong ngắn hạn của dầu đậu đang là hồi phục tăng và hiện tại thì dầu đậu đang tiếp cận vùng kháng cự tiềm năng 64 – 64.70 hợp lưu vời đường trendline giảm giá nên khả năng cao là giá dầu đậu sẽ phản ứng tại vùng này. Và nếu áp lực bán tăng mạnh tại vùng này khiến cho giá quay đầu giảm thì tạm thời dầu đậu sẽ tìm về vùng 63.10 – 63.50 và sâu hơn là vùng 62.65 – 63. Để chuẩn bị cho sự giảm giá tại vùng này thì dầu đậu có thể sẽ tích lũy từ 1 – 2 ngày và áp lực bán sẽ tăng mạnh dần.
- Ngoài ra, còn một khả năng là dầu đậu có thể tăng lên đến vùng 65.30 – 66.50 mới phản ứng giảm giá nếu lực mua vẫn còn nhiều ở hiện tại. Cho nên, nhà đầu tư hãy lưu ý vùng kháng cự tiềm năng như đã đề cập ở trên.
Lưu ý:
– Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.
– Luôn ưu tiên quản trị vốn để tối thiểu hóa rủi ro và từ đó có thể kiếm lợi nhuận một cách bền vững từ thị trường.
– Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.
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