DẦU
Tin tức
- Alberta đang hứng chịu nhiều thiệt hại sau vụ hủy bỏ đường ống Keystone và áp lực quốc tế hạn chế sản xuất dầu trong những năm tới, vì quốc gia giàu dầu mỏ này khẳng định cần duy trì ngành công nghiệp dầu mỏ đang phát triển mạnh để tồn tại.
- Đầu tiên, đó là việc hủy bỏ một dự án cơ sở hạ tầng dầu mỏ khổng lồ, mở rộng đường ống Keystone XL trị giá 8 tỷ USD, dài 1.700 dặm, được cho là chạy từ Alberta đến Nebraska, mang theo ước tính trung bình hàng ngày 800.000 bpd dầu.
- Dự án này đã bị làm đi làm lại, ban đầu bị Tổng thống Obama hủy bỏ nhưng sau đó được Tổng thống Trump phê duyệt lại. Tuy nhiên, khi Tổng thống Biden nhậm chức vào năm nay, với vấn đề biến đổi khí hậu được đặt lên hàng đầu trong chương trình nghị sự chính trị của ông, hy vọng về một đường ống dẫn nước một lần nữa bị tiêu tan.
- Sau đó, Cơ quan Năng lượng Quốc tế (IEA) đã công bố báo cáo mang tính bước ngoặt của họ vào tháng 5 này – “Lộ trình cho ngành năng lượng toàn cầu”, kêu gọi hạn chế sản xuất dầu, chấm dứt các dự án thăm dò mới và dần dần chuyển đổi để không phát thải carbon thực cùng với việc sử dụng nhiều hơn các giải pháp thay thế năng lượng tái tạo. Điểm này đã được nhắc lại trong tháng này trong báo cáo khí hậu của IPCC.
- Vì ngành công nghiệp cát dầu của Alberta cực kỳ nặng carbon, tạo ra lượng khí thải CO2 trên mỗi thùng dầu tương đương từ 3 đến 5 lần do quá trình khai thác khó khăn, miền tây Canada đã bị ảnh hưởng nặng nề bởi sự khuyến khích rời bỏ dầu mỏ của quốc tế này.
- Danh tiếng của Canada đã bị hoen ố vì lặp đi lặp lại những lời kêu gọi cắt giảm carbon và sự thất bại của rất nhiều dự án đường ống dẫn dầu của đất nước này. Nhiều đến mức tờ Financial Post đã dán nhãn quốc gia này là “nghĩa địa của các dự án đường ống khổng lồ”.
- Tuy nhiên, Alberta là nơi có trữ lượng dầu lớn thứ ba thế giới, vẫn được cho là có khoảng 173 tỷ thùng dầu có thể thu hồi về mặt kinh tế, điều này đã khiến Thủ hiến Alberta Jason Kenney nói rằng việc từ bỏ dầu mỏ là không thể đối với quốc gia giàu dầu mỏ này.
- Trước áp lực quốc tế buộc Canada phải kiềm chế sản xuất dầu của mình trong những năm tới, Kenney tuyên bố: “Đó là một ý tưởng không tưởng rằng chúng ta có thể đột ngột chấm dứt việc sử dụng năng lượng dựa trên hydrocacbon. Thay vào đó, thách thức là giảm sản lượng carbon và CO2, và Alberta ngày càng dẫn đầu thế giới về mặt này”.
- Canada hiện đang chỉ trích quyết định của Tổng thống Biden về việc hủy bỏ đường ống Keystone để đáp lại những lời kêu gọi gần đây của chính phủ ông về việc kiềm chế cắt giảm OPEC+ để ổn định giá dầu.
- Tuần trước, Cố vấn An ninh Quốc gia Hoa Kỳ Jake Sullivan đã đưa ra một tuyên bố cảnh báo về tác động của giá xăng ngày càng tăng, yêu cầu OPEC+ xem xét lại việc cắt giảm sản lượng hiện tại của họ để cải thiện giá dầu.
- Sonya Savage, Bộ trưởng Năng lượng của Alberta, đã đáp lại yêu cầu của Hoa Kỳ đối với OPEC+ bằng cách nhắc nhở chính phủ của Biden về mối quan hệ bị tổn hại và mất tiềm năng của ngành công nghiệp dầu Mỹ – Canada: “Chính quyền Biden cầu xin OPEC tăng sản lượng dầu để giải cứu nước Mỹ khỏi mức cao Giá nhiên liệu nhiều tháng sau khi hủy bỏ đường ống Keystone XL là những hành vi đạo đức giả.”
- Giá dầu thế giới dự kiến sẽ tăng cao kỷ lục vào năm tiếp theo.
Góc nhìn kỹ thuật
Chúng ta đang có một cấu trúc sóng hồi giảm trong thị trường hiện tại trước khi di chuyển tăng theo một sóng chủ mới. Cấu trúc giảm hiện tại đang phản ứng với vùng kháng cự 66-67 và vùng hỗ trợ 61-62. Tại đây là điểm mấu chốt để xác định tiếp đường đi của Dầu.
+ Xu hướng chính trong ngày là hồi giá tăng từ vùng hiện tại lên 65.8-66.
+ Các vùng kháng cự hiện tại là 66-67.
+ Có thể mở vị thế chờ sell tại vùng giá 65.8-66 . stp tại 66.36 tp tại 62.66.
+ Khuyến nghị giao dịch: Vẫn ưu tiên chờ sell tại vùng 65.8-66. Hạn chế vào vị thế buy ăn ngắn để tránh ngược xu hướng.
CÀ PHÊ
Tin tức
- Kết thúc phiên giao dịch, giá cà phê Robusta trên sàn ICE London đảo chiều tăng. Kỳ hạn giao ngay tháng 9 tăng 22 USD, lên 1.861 USD/tấn và kỳ hạn giao tháng 11 tăng 32 USD, lên 1.877 USD/tấn, các mức tăng rất đáng kể. Khối lượng giao dịch rất cao trên mức trung bình.
- Tương tự, giá cà phê Arabica trên sàn ICE NewYork cùng xu hướng tăng. Kỳ hạn giao ngay tháng 9 tăng 0,75 cent, lên 179,70 cent/lb và kỳ hạn giao tháng 12 tăng 0,85 cent, lên 182,85 cent/lb, các mức tăng nhẹ. Khối lượng giao dịch khá cao trên mức trung bình.
- Giá cà phê hưởng lợi do dòng vốn đầu cơ chảy mạnh về khi giá vàng và dầu thô chững lại, trong khi giá cả nhiều mặt hàng nông sản khác trái chiều nhau.
- Dự báo thời tiết ở vành đai cà phê Brasil sẽ có nhiều mưa trong tháng tới, thuận lợi để cho cây cà phê làm bông vụ mới, có thể làm tâm lý tiêu cực quay lại các thị trường cà phê trong ngắn hạn.
Góc nhìn kỹ thuật
Chart gốc 2H
Chúng ta đang có một cấu trúc sóng hồi tăng nhẹ trước khi giảm trong thị trường hiện tại. Với cấu trúc sóng tăng hồi thành hiện tại, giá sẽ quay về mốc 199.7. Tại đây là điểm mấu chốt để xác định tiếp đường đi của cà phê.
+ Xu hướng chính trong ngày là xu hướng tăng nhẹ.
+ Vùng kháng cự hiện tại là 200.
+ Vùng hỗ trợ hiện tại là 179.7-180.
+ Có thể mở vị thế chờ sell tại vùng giá 200 và stp tại vùng giá 205. Tp tại 162. Hoặc buy tại vùng hiện tại 182.85 stp 179.6 tp 199.
+ Khuyến nghị giao dịch: Vẫn ưu tiên chờ sell tại vùng 200. Hạn chế vào vị sell sớm để tránh ngược xu hướng.
Lưu ý:
– Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.
– Luôn ưu tiên quản trị vốn để tối thiểu hóa rủi ro và từ đó có thể kiếm lợi nhuận một cách bền vững từ thị trường.
– Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.
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