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Mexico nhập khẩu 9 triệu tấn ngô từ tháng 1 đến tháng 6
– Mexico đã nhập khẩu 9 triệu tấn ngô trong nửa đầu năm, tăng 16.4% so với mức 7.72 triệu tấn nhập khẩu cùng kỳ năm 2020, số liệu từ công ty tư vấn địa phương Grupo Consultor de Mercados Agricolas (GCMA) cho thấy.
– Nhập khẩu ngô vàng từ Mỹ đạt 8.33 triệu tấn trong giai đoạn này, tăng 15.6% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, trong khi nhập khẩu ngô vàng từ Brazil đạt 59,600 tấn trong giai đoạn từ tháng 1 đến tháng 6, giảm 10.7% so với cùng kỳ năm 2020.
– Theo GCMA, Mexico dự kiến sẽ nhập khẩu 18 triệu tấn ngô trong năm nay. Nước này chủ yếu tự cung tự cấp ngô trắng nhưng phụ thuộc vào ngô vàng biến đổi gien của Mỹ để làm thức ăn chăn nuôi. Chính phủ Mexico gần đây cho biết họ đặt mục tiêu giảm nhập khẩu ngô vàng lên tới 2 triệu tấn trong trung hạn.
– Theo báo cáo của các phương tiện truyền thông, Ban Thư ký Nông nghiệp và Phát triển Nông thôn (SADER), Víctor Villalobos Arámbula cho biết tốc độ nhập khẩu ngô vàng ngày càng tăng trong những năm qua rất đáng lo ngại, với mức tăng gấp đôi chỉ trong hơn một thập kỷ.
– Mexico đã nhập khẩu 2.7 triệu tấn lúa mì từ tháng 1 đến tháng 6, tăng 18.2% so với 2.28 triệu tấn trong cùng kỳ năm 2020, theo GCMA. Trong đó, nước này nhập khẩu 2.21 triệu tấn lúa mì từ Mỹ, với 444,800 tấn khác từ Canada và 39,200 tấn từ Argentina, so với 1.64 triệu tấn lúa mì của Mỹ và 489.100 tấn từ Canada trong cùng kỳ năm 2020.
– Vào tháng 6, GCMA đã nâng triển vọng nhập khẩu lúa mì năm 2021 của nước này lên 5.18 triệu tấn do nhu cầu lúa mì trong nước phục hồi do giá ngô cao. Abel Rodriguez Montejo, một nhà phân tích của GCMA, cho biết nhu cầu trong nước đã ghi nhận sự phục hồi mạnh mẽ sau đại dịch. Anh cũng cho biết Mexico dự kiến sẽ sản xuất 3 triệu tấn lúa mì trong năm tiếp thị 2021/22, tăng nhẹ so với 2.94 triệu tấn của chu kỳ trước đó. Nước này cũng dự kiến sẽ xuất khẩu 640,000 tấn lúa mì vào năm 2021, tăng từ 615,000 tấn vào năm 2020, theo công ty tư vấn.
Sản lượng ngũ cốc châu Âu tăng kỳ vọng về sản lượng
– Văn phòng USDA tại Madrid đã điều chỉnh triển vọng sản xuất ngũ cốc của châu Âu lên 5% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái lên 293.3 triệu tấn cho năm 2021/22, do mưa lớn đã cải thiện độ ẩm của đất và giảm bớt lo ngại về hạn hán. Tuy nhiên, nhiệt độ thấp hơn “đã làm trì hoãn tăng trưởng trên toàn EU, gây áp lực lên vụ mùa mới”, USDA cho biết.
– Diện tích trồng ngũ cốc của EU đã được điều chỉnh giảm do lượng ngô được trồng ít hơn trên các khu vực sản xuất chính ở Pháp, Bulgaria, Ba Lan và Áo, trong khi diện tích trồng lúa mì tăng lên. Việc sử dụng ngũ cốc của châu Âu đã bị ảnh hưởng bởi sự gián đoạn tiêu thụ do dịch bệnh Covid-19, cũng như nhu cầu thức ăn chăn nuôi giảm ở cả các quốc gia trong EU và các điểm xuất khẩu quan trọng, chẳng hạn như Trung Quốc.
– Tuy nhiên, tổng tiêu thụ ngũ cốc ở EU dự kiến sẽ phục hồi vào năm 2021/22 ở mức 266.2 triệu tấn. Nông dân châu Âu dự kiến sẽ thu hoạch 138.4 triệu tấn lúa mì trong năm 2021/22, nhờ vào diện tích trồng lớn ở Áo, Đan Mạch, Bulgaria và Estonia.
– Nhập khẩu lúa mì đã được điều chỉnh giảm 220,000 tấn so với năm ngoái xuống còn 5.4 triệu tấn, trong khi xuất khẩu dự kiến đạt 33.4 triệu tấn, tăng 9% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.
– Sản lượng ngô cao hơn ước tính ở Ba Lan, Pháp, Đức và Tây Ban Nha đã hỗ trợ tổng sản lượng ngô của châu Âu, được ước tính ở mức 66.8 triệu tấn, tăng so với 64.5 triệu tấn so với năm ngoái. Nhập khẩu ngô của châu Âu được ước tính ở mức 15.5 triệu tấn, tăng 14% so với mức 13.3 triệu tấn của năm ngoái, mặc dù giá ngô toàn cầu tăng khiến ngô bị loại khỏi công thức thức ăn chăn nuôi. Tổng lượng ngô tiêu thụ được đưa ra là 76.7 triệu tấn, bao gồm 57 triệu tấn dùng làm thức ăn chăn nuôi.
Ngô Trung Quốc thiệt hại nhẹ mặc cho đợt mưa lớn tồi tệ nhất lịch sử ở miền trung Trung Quốc
– Các nhà phân tích Trung Quốc cho biết sản xuất ngô ở tỉnh Hà Nam, miền trung Trung Quốc đã không bị thiệt hại nghiêm trọng trong trận mưa lớn gây lũ lụt nghiêm trọng kéo dài những ngày gần đây. Điều kiện thời tiết đang làm gia tăng lo ngại về tác động tiềm tàng đối với sự tăng trưởng và sản xuất ngô của đất nước.
– Lượng mưa hơn 1,000 mm đã diễn ra chỉ trong 5 ngày trên khắp Hà Nam, gây ra lũ lụt trên diện rộng và khiến 25 người chết và 7 người mất tích. Cùng với đó, hơn 75,000 ha cây trồng đã bị ảnh hưởng, theo một cuộc họp báo khẩn cấp ở Hà Nam hôm thứ Tư. Khả năng thiệt hại cho việc trồng trọt và sản lượng ngô ở cơ sở sản xuất ngũ cốc lớn của Trung Quốc cũng làm dấy lên những lo ngại đáng kể, nhưng những dấu hiệu ban đầu cho thấy sản xuất đã tránh được tác động tồi tệ nhất. Một nhà kinh doanh ngũ cốc tại Trung Quốc cho biết: “Tôi nghĩ rằng tác động đến sản xuất ngô ở Hà Nam sẽ không quá nặng nề”.
– Theo dữ liệu sản xuất ngũ cốc năm 2020 từ Bộ Nông nghiệp và Nông thôn Trung Quốc (MARA), sản lượng ngô ở Hà Nam đạt 22 triệu tấn, chiếm 8.4% trong tổng số 260 triệu tấn được sản xuất trên toàn quốc.
– Darin Friedrichs, nhà phân tích cấp cao về Hàng hóa Châu Á tại StoneX, cho biết: “Sản lượng ngô ở Trung Quốc tăng trong năm nay, nhưng phần lớn diện tích được mở rộng là ở phía đông bắc Trung Quốc nhờ việc nông dân chuyển từ đậu tương sang ngô”.
– Ngoại trừ lo ngại về thiệt hại mùa màng, mưa lớn và lũ lụt cũng làm dấy lên lo lắng cho đặc tỉnh chăn nuôi lợn miền Trung Trung Quốc, do nguồn điện cung cấp cho các trang trại chăn nuôi lợn đã bị đe dọa bởi thảm họa. Một nguồn tin trong ngành cho biết: “Thiệt hại đối với các trang trại và công ty lớn là hạn chế, nhưng những nông dân tư nhân nhỏ do đó sẽ bị thiệt hại nặng nề.
Xuất khẩu ngô của Ấn Độ tăng nhờ giá cao và nhu cầu nội địa thấp
– Dự báo xuất khẩu ngô của Ấn Độ đã được tăng 1 triệu tấn lên 2.8 triệu tấn trong năm tiếp thị 2020/21 do nhu cầu trong nước chậm chạp và giá đậu quốc tế cao, văn phòng địa phương của USDA tại nước này cho biết trong một báo cáo ngày 15/7. “Giá nội địa thấp và giá ngô toàn cầu tăng mạnh khiến giá ngô Ấn Độ đang rất cạnh tranh ở Bangladesh và Nepal”, bài báo địa phương cho biết.
– Bên cạnh giá quốc tế tăng, USDA kỳ vọng xuất khẩu sẽ được thúc đẩy bởi nhu cầu nội địa đang trầm lắng, chủ yếu là do ảnh hưởng của đại dịch Covid. Tiêu thụ phụ phẩm và tiêu thụ nội địa từ ngô tồn dư trong năm tiếp thị hiện tại đã giảm từ 17 triệu xuống 16 triệu tấn do sản lượng gia cầm thấp.
– Theo bài đăng, “các nguồn tin thị trường báo cáo rằng ngành công nghiệp gia cầm Ấn Độ tiếp tục đối mặt với áp lực do nhu cầu thịt gia cầm yếu sau đợt Covid-19 thứ hai vào tháng 3 năm 2021.” Nhiều người kỳ vọng rằng ngành công nghiệp sẽ phục hồi nếu không có làn sóng covid thứ ba nghiêm trọng quét qua đất nước trong những tháng tới.
– Xuất khẩu ngô trong niên độ năm 2021/22 cũng đã tăng 300,000 tấn lên 1.5 triệu tấn do khối lượng vận chuyển sang Bangladesh và Nepal cao hơn được ưa chuộng nhờ chi phí vận chuyển thấp.
Dự báo thời tiết thế giới
– Mỹ: Dự báo thời tiết khô hạn ở các vùng đồng bằng phía Bắc vẫn không thay đổi, với khả năng cao nắng nóng sẽ ảnh hưởng đến cây trồng do độ ẩm của đất vẫn ở mức thấp hơn bình thường. Khu vực vành đai ngô phía Tây dự kiến sẽ có thời tiết khô nóng trong mười ngày tới, và sẽ làm giảm độ ẩm của đất ở một số khu vành đai, điều này có thể ảnh hưởng đến sự phát triển của cây trồng. Các loại cây trồng có khả năng bị ảnh hưởng bởi điều kiện khô nóng là lúa mì xuân, ngô và đậu tương. Kyle Tapley, nhân viên cảu Maxar Technology cho biết: “Khô hạn vẫn là mối quan tâm rộng rãi trên khắp các khu vực trồng vụ xuân ở đồng bằng phía bắc Hoa Kỳ.”
– Canada: Nhiều phần trên thảo nguyên Canada được dự báo sẽ tiếp tục trải qua điều kiện thời tiết khô hạn, trong khi thời tiết nắng nóng đã giảm bớt tác động tiêu cực đến mùa màng.
– Brazil: Một khối không khí từ vùng cực đi qua miền nam và miền trung Brazil đã gây ra một đợt lạnh kèm theo sương giá xuất hiện vào sáng sớm trên khắp các khu vực nông nghiệp từ thứ Hai đến thứ Năm, khi nhiệt độ bắt đầu tăng lên.
– Châu Âu: Khô hạn lan đến ở các vùng bị lũ lụt của Tây bắc Châu Âu. Lượng mưa kỷ lục trên nhiều vùng của Đức đã dẫn đến lũ lụt gây thiệt hại và phải đóng cửa sông Rhine ở phía nam, nhưng mực nước dự kiến sẽ giảm xuống sau điều kiện thời tiết khô hạn, giúp mở lại tuyến vận tải nội địa trong thời gian ngắn. Thời tiết khô hạn dự kiến sẽ tiếp tục ở các khu vực phía đông nam của Châu Âu gây căng thẳng cho vụ ngô.
– Biển Đen: Lượng mưa sẽ giúp cải thiện độ ẩm của đất cho ngô, nhưng tình trạng khô hạn tiếp tục ảnh hưởng đến vụ mùa. Tại Ukraine, mưa lớn đã giảm trên một số khu vực phía Nam và phía Bắc trong tuần này. Ở một số vùng, lượng mưa lớn như trút nước đã đổ gần một tuần, các chuyên gia cho rằng mưa sẽ ảnh hưởng đến tốc độ của chiến dịch thu hoạch và tình trạng của các loại cây trồng như ngô và hướng dương.
– Nga: Một số lượng mưa dự kiến sẽ xảy ra ở các vùng đất mới phía nam của Nga và phía tây bắc Kazakhstan trong thời gian ngắn hạn, điều này sẽ giúp giảm bớt căng thẳng nhiệt và hỗ trợ phát triển cây trồng.
GÓC NHÌN KỸ THUẬT
Lúa mì kỳ hạn tháng 09.2021
- Đúng như dự đoán trong Góc nhìn kỹ thuật ngày 20.07.2021, lúa mì đã bước vào sóng điều chỉnh sau khi chạm vùng 716 – 724.
- Link tham khảo: https://dautuhanghoa.vn/phan-tich-lua-mi-ngay-20-07-2021-xu-huong-tang-duoc-xac-nhan/#goc-nhin-ky-thuat
- Lúa mì đã tạo ra một vùng kháng cự cứng và rộng vùng 702 – 718. Đây là vùng bán tiềm năng và an toàn cho lúa mì nếu giá có thể hồi phục về.
- Xu hướng hiện tại của lúa mì đang là điều chỉnh giảm và lúa mì có thể tiếp tục xu hướng này theo kênh giá giảm như hình trên.
- Vùng mà lúa mì có khả năng tìm về trong thời gian tới lần lượt là các vùng 672 – 677 và sâu hơn là vùng 663 – 668.
- Vì xu hướng hiện tại đang là điều chỉnh giảm thì nhà đầu tư nên ưu tiên vị thế bán thì sẽ an toàn hơn.
Ngô kỳ hạn tháng 09.2021
- Ngô đã không thành công trong việc nỗ lực hồi phục và đã quay về kiểm tra vùng giá 562 – 567 như đã cảnh báo trong Góc nhìn kỹ thuật ngày 21.07.2021 và thậm chí là giảm sâu hơn.
- Link tham khảo: https://dautuhanghoa.vn/phan-tich-ngo-ngay-21-07-2021-xu-huong-hoi-phuc-van-dang-tiep-tuc/#goc-nhin-ky-thuat
- Hiện tại thì ngô vẫn chưa thoát khỏi được vùng tích lũy 547 – 579 và đường như đang dao động trong kênh giá hẹp hơn như hình đính kèm.
- Giá ngô có thể tiếp tục hồi phục và tiệm cận vùng đỉnh trước đó 572 – 579 và cũng hợp lưu với đường kênh giá.
- Ngoài ra, cũng không loại trừ khả năng rằng áp lực bán còn mạnh khiến cho giá ngô giảm về vùng 547 – 557. Nhà đầu tư cần cẩn trọng điều này.
Lưu ý:
– Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.
– Luôn ưu tiên quản trị vốn để tối thiểu hóa rủi ro và từ đó có thể kiếm lợi nhuận một cách bền vững từ thị trường.
– Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.
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