DẦU THÔ

TIN TỨC

Dầu Thô Leo Thang Về Triển Vọng Nhu Cầu Nhiên Liệu Phản Lực Mạnh Hơn

  • Dầu thô WTI tháng 11 (CLX21) hôm thứ Ba đóng cửa tăng +0,35 (+ 0,50%), và xăng RBOB tháng 11 (RBX21) đóng cửa giảm -0,0005 (-0,02%).
  • Giá dầu thô WTI tháng 11 và giá xăng RBOB tháng 11 hôm thứ Ba giải quyết pha trộn với xăng ở mức thấp nhất trong 1 tuần. Đồng đô la yếu hơn đã tác động tích cực đến giá dầu thô hôm thứ Ba, cùng với triển vọng nhu cầu nhiên liệu máy bay toàn cầu mạnh hơn. Những lo ngại liên tục về sự lây lan từ cuộc khủng hoảng nợ tài sản của Trung Quốc đã gây áp lực lên giá cổ phiếu hôm thứ Ba, làm giảm niềm tin vào triển vọng kinh tế và tiêu cực đối với nhu cầu năng lượng và giá dầu thô.  
  • Việc sản xuất dầu thô của Mỹ ở Vịnh Mexico chậm trở lại đang hỗ trợ cho giá cả. Việc nối lại sản xuất dầu thô ở Vịnh của Mỹ đã bị trì hoãn do cơn bão nhiệt đới Nicholas đổ bộ vào tuần trước. Trong khi đó, Royal Dutch Shell (là một công ty dầu khí đa quốc gia của Anh và Hà Lan) cho biết các giàn khoan dầu thô và khí đốt tự nhiên của họ ở Vịnh Mexico đã hứng chịu nhiều thiệt hại từ cơn bão Ida hơn so với dự đoán ban đầu.
  • Một yếu tố tích cực đối với dầu thô là triển vọng nhu cầu nhiên liệu máy bay tăng sau khi Hoa Kỳ hôm thứ Hai dỡ bỏ các hạn chế đối với việc đi lại bằng đường hàng không đến Anh và EU. Theo Energy Aspects Ltd (là một công ty tư vấn nghiên cứu hàng hóa năng lượng độc lập), việc dỡ bỏ các hạn chế đi lại của Hoa Kỳ có thể làm tăng nhu cầu về nhiên liệu máy bay lên tới 200.000 thùng/ngày.
  • Giá dầu thô cũng chịu áp lực hôm thứ Ba do triển vọng OPEC + sẽ tăng mức sản xuất dầu thô. Bộ trưởng Dầu mỏ UAE Suhail Al-Mazrouei và Bộ trưởng Dầu mỏ Iraq Ihsan Abdul Jabbar đều cho biết họ kỳ vọng OPEC + tại cuộc họp ngày 4 tháng 10 sẽ bám sát kế hoạch tăng thêm 400.000 thùng / ngày trong mức sản lượng dầu thô của nhóm bắt đầu từ ngày 1 tháng 11. Ngoài ra, Bộ trưởng Dầu mỏ UAE Suhail Al-Mazrouei cho biết OPEC + không “lo lắng về tình trạng dư thừa” nguồn cung dầu thô trong quý 2 năm 2022.
  • Sự suy yếu trong sự lan truyền vết nứt là giá dầu thô giảm sau khi sự lan rộng vết nứt giảm xuống mức thấp nhất trong 3 tuần vào thứ Ba. Sự yếu kém trong sự lan rộng của vết nứt không khuyến khích các nhà máy lọc dầu mua dầu thô để tinh chế thành xăng.  
  • Sự sụt giảm trong lượng dầu thô toàn cầu được lưu trữ trên các tàu chở dầu trên khắp thế giới là một xu hướng tăng giá cho giá dầu thô.Dầu thô dự trữ trên các tàu chở dầu nằm yên ít nhất 7 ngày trong tuần kết thúc vào ngày 17/9 đã giảm -25% w/w xuống 69,94 triệu bbl, thấp nhất trong 17 tháng.
  • Triển vọng áp dụng các biện pháp trừng phạt đối với xuất khẩu dầu thô của Iran trong thời gian tới sẽ hỗ trợ cho giá dầu thô. Chính phủ mới của Iran tiếp tục tăng sản xuất uranium làm giàu và đã không thể nối lại hợp tác đầy đủ với các nhà giám sát quốc tế. Cơ quan Năng lượng Nguyên tử Quốc tế gần đây cho biết Iran đã gia tăng kho dự trữ uranium làm giàu gần với mức cần thiết cho cấp vũ khí và tiếp tục hạn chế giám sát các cơ sở và điều tra các hoạt động không được khai báo. Tuy nhiên, Iran hôm nay cho biết họ hy vọng sẽ nối lại các cuộc đàm phán với các cường quốc thế giới để khôi phục thỏa thuận hạt nhân năm 2015 trong vòng vài tuần tới.
  • Một yếu tố giảm giá đối với dầu thô là việc đóng cửa các nhà máy lọc dầu dọc theo Bờ Vịnh do cơn bão Ida, gây áp lực tăng lên đối với tồn kho dầu thô của Mỹ vì các nhà máy lọc dầu không thể chế biến dầu thô trong khi đóng cửa. Khoảng 2,11 triệu thùng/ngày công suất lọc dầu, tương đương khoảng 12% tổng công suất của Hoa Kỳ, đã bị đóng cửa hoặc giảm do bão. Theo Hiệp hội dầu Lipow, nhiều nhà máy lọc dầu có thể phải đóng cửa trong vòng 4-6 tuần vì ảnh hưởng của bão.
  • Giá dầu thô tăng +30 cent / thùng so với mức đóng cửa chiều thứ Ba sau khi API báo cáo rằng nguồn cung dầu thô của Mỹ tuần trước giảm -6,11 triệu thùng Sự đồng thuận là tồn kho hàng tuần của Hiệp hôi doanh nghiệp điện tử (EIA) giảm -3,0 triệu thùng.
  • Báo cáo Hiệp hôi doanh nghiệp điện tử (EIA) hàng tuần vào thứ Tư tuần trước cho thấy tồn kho dầu thô của Mỹ tính đến ngày 10 tháng 9 thấp hơn -7,7% so với mức trung bình 5 năm theo mùa, tồn kho xăng thấp hơn -4,3% so với mức trung bình 5 năm và tồn kho sản phẩm chưng cất thấp hơn -13,0% so với mức trung bình 5 năm. Sản lượng dầu thô của Mỹ trong tuần kết thúc vào ngày 10 tháng 9 tăng + 1,0% w / w lên 10,1 triệu thùng / ngày, thấp hơn -3,0 triệu thùng/ngày (-22,9%), thấp hơn mức cao kỷ lục tháng 2/2020 là 13,1 triệu thùng/ngày.

GÓC NHÌN KỸ THUẬT

Phân tích kỹ thuật Dầu WTI

Trong ngắn hạn, dầu đang điều chỉnh giảm. Các tín hiệu phân tích cho thấy dầu đang có ngưỡng kháng cự tại 72.45. Khả năng cao đang hình thành vùng sideway.         

+ Xu hướng chính trong ngày là xu hướng giảm

+ Vùng kháng cự hiện tại là 72.45

+ Vùng hỗ trợ hiện tại là 69.2

+ Có thể mở vị thế sell tại vị trí hiện tại 71.7 – 71.85 stp tại 72.45. tp 69.2

Phân tích kỹ thuật Xăng

Chúng ta đã có nhịp giảm  theo đúng nhận định về vùng giá 2.08 như nhận định ngày 21/09/2021. Giá giảm khá nhanh về vùng hỗ trợ và bật lên. Chứng tỏ đây là vùng hỗ trợ mạnh lúc này.

Xu hướng chính trong ngày là xu hướng giảm

+ Vùng kháng cự hiện tại là 2.177

+ Vùng hỗ trợ hiện tại là 2.1

+ Có thể mở vị thế chờ buy tại vùng giá 2.11 khi giá break trendline

KHÍ TỰ NHIÊN

TIN TỨC

Khí Tự Nhiên Suy Giảm Về Triển Vọng Nhiệt Độ Nhẹ Ở Mỹ

  • Khí tự nhiên Nymex tháng 10 (NGV21) vào thứ Ba đóng cửa giảm -0.180 (-3.61%).
  • Nat-gas tháng 10 vào thứ Ba đã công bố mức thấp nhất trong hơn 1 tuần và đóng cửa thấp hơn mạnh trong ngày thứ ba. Giá Nat-gas đã chịu áp lực trong ba phiên qua do dự báo về thời tiết ôn hòa của Hoa Kỳ, điều này sẽ hạn chế nhu cầu Nat-gas từ các nhà cung cấp điện để cung cấp năng lượng cho điều hòa không khí. Công ty Thời tiết hôm thứ Ba cho biết nhiệt độ bình thường được dự kiến cho Bờ biển phía Đông từ ngày 1-5 tháng 10.
  • Một yếu tố hỗ trợ cho giá nat-gas là lo ngại rằng có thể mất nhiều thời gian hơn để hoạt động sản xuất nat-gas của Mỹ ở Vịnh Mexico sau khi Royal Dutch Shell cho biết các giàn khoan nat-gas của họ ở Vịnh Mexico bị thiệt hại nhiều hơn từ cơn bão Ida. hơn nghi ngờ ban đầu. Tính đến chiều thứ Ba, 25,4% sản lượng khí đốt ngoài khơi của Hoa Kỳ vẫn bị ngừng hoạt động vì cơn bão Ida.
  • Giá gas tự nhiên tháng 10 trước đó đã tăng lên mức cao mới trong tương lai gần nhất trong hơn 7 năm vào thứ Tư tuần trước do lo ngại về nguồn cung thắt chặt. Việc sử dụng nat-gas trong nước của Hoa Kỳ gia tăng trong mùa hè này do nhiệt độ trên mức trung bình và tác động từ một số cơn bão vùng Vịnh đã hạn chế việc tích lũy nguồn cung cấp nat-gas của Hoa Kỳ trước mùa đông, một thời điểm mạnh trong năm đối với nat Hoa Kỳ. sử dụng gas.
  • Bão Ida và Bão nhiệt đới Nicholas đã đóng cửa một số nhà ga xuất khẩu khí đốt tự nhiên của Hoa Kỳ và làm giảm xuất khẩu khí đốt tự nhiên của Hoa Kỳ. Theo BNEF (là nhà cung cấp nghiên cứu chiến lược hàng đầu thế giới), dòng khí đến các nhà ga xuất khẩu  của Mỹ hôm thứ Ba là 9,6 bcf(Billion Cubic Feet), thấp hơn mức bình thường là 10,5 bcf. Vào ngày 18 tháng 4, dòng khí đến các kho xuất khẩu  của Hoa Kỳ đã tăng lên mức kỷ lục 11,921 bcf (dữ liệu từ năm 2014).
  • Nhiệt độ cao hơn mức bình thường gần đây của Hoa Kỳ đã dẫn đến sự gia tăng sản lượng điện của Hoa Kỳ và làm tăng nhu cầu khí đốt tự nhiên từ các nhà cung cấp dịch vụ tiện ích. Viện Điện Edison đã báo cáo hôm thứ Tư tuần trước rằng tổng sản lượng điện của Hoa Kỳ trong tuần kết thúc vào ngày 11 tháng 9 đã tăng + 3,8% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái lên 80.448 GWh (gigawatt giờ). Sản lượng điện cộng dồn của Hoa Kỳ trong giai đoạn 52 tuần kết thúc vào ngày 11 tháng 9 đã tăng + 1,1% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái lên 4.005.359 GWh.
  • Nhu cầu gas tự nhiên trong nước đã suy yếu. Dữ liệu của BNEF cho thấy mức tiêu thụ gas tự nhiên của 48 người Mỹ vào thứ Ba là 61,9 bcf, mức thấp nhất kể từ ngày 11 tháng 9.
  • Sản lượng khí đốt thấp hơn 48 của Hoa Kỳ vào thứ Ba ở mức 91,527 bcf, tăng 2,5% so với cùng kỳ, theo BNEF.
  • Báo cáo hàng tuần của EIA hôm thứ Năm tuần trước cho thấy giá xăng giảm vì nó cho thấy tồn kho khí đốt tự nhiên của Mỹ đã tăng +83 bcf lên 3.006 bcf trong tuần kết thúc vào ngày 10 tháng 9, trên mức đồng thuận là +76 bcf và mức trung bình 5 năm là +79 bcf. Nguồn cung vẫn cực kỳ eo hẹp, với hàng tồn kho giảm -16,8% so với cùng kỳ năm trước và thấp hơn -7,1% so với mức trung bình 5 năm.

GÓC NHÌN KỸ THUẬT

Như nhận định hôm qua, giá đã tiếp tục giảm giá. Vùng giảm giá của sóng điều chỉnh này sẽ tiếp tục đi về vùng 4.616 như nhận định ban đầu. Tại đây là điểm mấu chốt để xác định tiếp đường đi của khí tự nhiên.

+ Xu hướng chính trong ngày là xu hướng giảm

+ Vùng kháng cự hiện tại là 5.05

+ Vùng hỗ trợ hiện tại là 4.616

+ Có thể mở vị thế sell tại vùng giá hiện tại 4.83-4.86

Lưu ý:

– Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.

– Luôn ưu tiên quản trị vốn để tối thiểu hóa rủi ro và từ đó có thể kiếm lợi nhuận một cách bền vững từ thị trường.

– Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.

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