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TIN TỨC

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Nhóm hàng cà phê

Giá cà phê chốt phiên cuối tuần trước đồng loạt giảm trên cả hai sàn London và New York. Giá arabica sụt giảm mạnh do người Brazil đang mạnh tay bán ra.

Giá cà phê thế giới

  • Giá cà phê robusta trên sàn ICE Futures Europe – London kỳ hạn giao tháng 3/2022 giảm 14 USD (0,63%), giao dịch tại 2.213 USD/tấn.
  • Giá cà phê arabica trên sàn ICE Futures US – New York tiếp tục giảm, kỳ hạn giao tháng 3/2022 giảm mạnh 5,75 Cent (2,36%), giao dịch tại 237,9 Cent/lb.
  • Bộ Nông nghiệp Mỹ (USDA) dự báo sản lượng cà phê thế giới trong niên vụ 2021-2022 giảm 8,5 triệu bao (tương ứng giảm 4,8%) so với niên vụ 2020-2021 xuống còn 167,5 triệu bao (loại 60 kg/bao), chủ yếu do cây cà phê arabica tại Brazil bước vào chu kỳ năng suất thấp hai năm một lần và ảnh hưởng bởi các yếu tố thời tiết bất lợi.
  • Trong khi đó, xuất khẩu cà phê toàn cầu trong niên vụ 2020-2021 dự kiến giảm 3,8 triệu bao so với niên vụ trước, xuống còn 117,2 triệu bao do khối lượng xuất khẩu của Brazil giảm mạnh, mặc dù xuất khẩu của Việt Nam dự báo tăng.
  • Nhập khẩu cà phê của EU được dự báo sẽ giảm 1,1 triệu bao xuống còn 42,5 triệu bao và chiếm gần 40% lượng cà phê nhập khẩu của thế giới. Các nhà cung cấp hàng đầu cho EU bao gồm Brazil (34%), Việt Nam (24%), Honduras (8%) và Colombia (6%). Dự trữ cà phê cuối kỳ của EU niên vụ 2021-2022 dự kiến giảm 2,5 triệu bao, xuống còn 11,3 triệu bao nhằm đáp ứng mức tăng của nhu cầu tiêu thụ.

Giá cà phê trong nước

  • Cụ thể, tại huyện Di Linh (Lâm Đồng) giá cà phê được thu mua với mức 39.200 đồng/kg. Tại Bảo Lộc (Lâm Đồng), Lâm Hà (Lâm Đồng) giá cà phê ở mức 39.100 đồng/kg.
  • Tại huyện Cư M’gar (ĐắkLắk) giá cà phê hôm nay ở mức 40.000 đồng/kg. Tại huyện Ea H’leo (ĐắkLắk), Buôn Hồ (ĐắkLắk) giá cà phê hôm nay được thu mua với mức 39.900 đồng/kg.
  • Tại Pleiku (Gia Lai), La Grai (Gia Lai), giá cà phê hôm nay đang ở mức 39.900 đồng/kg. Còn tại huyện Chư Prông (Gia Lai) được thu mua với mức thấp hơn 39.800 đồng/kg.
  • Tại Gia Nghĩa và Đắk R’lấp (Đắk Nông), giá cà phê được thu mua với mức tương ứng 39.900 đồng/kg, 39.800 đồng/kg.
  • Tại tỉnh Kon Tum giá cà phê hôm nay được thu mua với mức 39.900 đồng/kg.
  • Như vậy, giá cà phê hôm nay đang dao động trong khoảng từ 39.100 – 40.000 đồng/kg.

GÓC NHÌN KĨ THUẬT

Cà phê Robusta

Đồ thị D1
  • Robusta sau qua trình điều chỉnh về lại mức hỗ trợ 2200$ đang cho phản ứng giá hồi phục khá tốt. Thị trường đã liên tục test về lại mức hỗ trợ này trong các phiên trước đó và tạm thời đây là vùng hỗ trợ an toàn cho thị trường ở thời điểm hiện tại.
  • Robusta đang đi trong kênh tích luỹ biên độ 2200-2380$ và khả năng thị trường sẽ dần hình thành vùng phân phối đỉnh tại đây sóng ngắn hạn chủ yếu sẽ đi trong biên độ này và không có biến động mạnh.
  • Quý NĐT đã mở vị thế mua lên quanh ngưỡng 2200$ của các bài nhận định trước đó có thể cân nhắc tiếp tục giữ lệnh trong ngày hôm nay.
  • Kháng cự hiện tại: 2240$.
  • Hỗ trợ hiện tại: 2200$.

Cà phê Arabica

Đồ thị D1
  • Arabica tiếp tục chạm ngưỡng kháng cự 244$ và đã không thoát qua được vùng tâm lý này. Hiện tại đồ thị Arabica đang đi trong 1 tam giác giá có biên độ khá rộng và nhịp này thị trường sẽ tiếp tục tích luỹ thêm thời gian tới để thị trường vào sóng.
  • Trendline tăng giá vẫn đang hỗ trợ tốt cho Arabica hiện tại, Quý NĐT có thể cân nhắc xem xét phản ứng giá của Arabica khi thị trường chạm lại mốc trendline đỡ giá này để mở thêm vị thế mua lên.
  •  Kháng cự hiện tại: 244$.
  •  Hỗ trợ hiện tại: 239.15$.

ĐƯỜNG

TIN TỨC

  • Giá đường thô kỳ hạn tháng 03/2022 đã có 1 tuần hồi phục mạnh cùng với đà tăng trưởng của dầu thô. Đường kết thúc phiên giao dịch tuần trước ở mốc 18.9$ tương đương với mức tăng 3.22%.
  • Giá đường thô kỳ hạn trên sàn ICE giao dịch ở mức 18,9 USD, cao nhất trong hai tuần, khi các quỹ hàng hóa ngừng bán tháo trong bối cảnh nguồn cung giữa các nhà sản xuất lớn giảm. 
  • Các đại lý cho biết rằng các quỹ hàng hóa đã ngừng thanh lý các vị thế mua của họ, ban đầu là bán tháo do thu hoạch mạnh ở Thái Lan và Brazil, trong bối cảnh các vấn đề sản xuất và chuỗi cung ứng ở Ấn Độ. 
  • Giá đường giảm vào đầu năm 2022 đã thúc đẩy các nhà máy Ấn Độ chuyển hướng trồng mía sang sản xuất ethanol thay vì xay đường, cản trở nguồn cung trong tương lai.

GÓC NHÌN KĨ THUẬT

Đồ thị D1
  • Đường trong tuần trước chỉ đạt được mức 19.28$ đã cho 1 nhịp điều chỉnh mạnh phá qua trendline đỡ giá trong ngắn hạn. Hiện tại giá đang neo đậu quanh ngưỡng Fibonacci 18.82$ theo bài cập nhật trước đó và đang giữ giá khá tốt trong khu vực này.
  • Dự kiến giá sẽ còn phải tích luỹ thêm trong ngắn hạn tại mức giá này để xác nhận đây là đáy trong ngắn hạn. Quý NĐT nếu đang không có vị thế mua lên với mã đường có thể tiếp tục quan sát trong phiên ngày hôm nay.
  • Kháng cự ngắn hạn : 19.37$.
  • Hỗ trợ hiện tại : 18.82$

COTTON

TIN TỨC

  • Cotton hợp đồng tương lai kỳ hạn tháng 3/22 đà tăng đã giảm phần nào khi thị trường giảm khá mạnh vào cuối phiên. Kết thúc phiên giao dịch tuần trước, cotton đóng cửa ở mốc 120.75$ tương đương với mức tăng 0.88%.
  • Giá bông kỳ hạn đã mở rộng mức tăng lên trên 120$ , mức cao nhất kể từ tháng 6 năm 2011, trong bối cảnh kỳ vọng về nhu cầu của công ty, đặc biệt là từ Trung Quốc và nguồn cung thắt chặt. 
  • Sự cấp bách trong việc tìm nguồn cung cấp và mua bông tương lai của các quỹ đầu cơ cũng hỗ trợ thị trường bông. Trong khi đó, nông dân ở nước sản xuất hàng đầu Ấn Độ vẫn tiếp tục sản xuất do mưa lớn ảnh hưởng đến chất lượng cây trồng.
  • Trong một diễn biến khác, USDA trong báo cáo mới nhất ước tính sản lượng toàn cầu năm 2021/22 giảm 608.000 kiện do sản lượng thấp hơn ở Mỹ và Ấn Độ bù đắp cho sự gia tăng của Trung Quốc, Australia và Pakistan. Dự báo tiêu thụ toàn cầu năm 2021/22 hầu như không thay đổi do việc sử dụng bông của Trung Quốc giảm 500.000 kiện được bù đắp bằng lợi nhuận của Ấn Độ, Mexico và Pakistan. Các kho dự trữ cuối năm 2021/22 toàn cầu giảm 726.000 kiện trong tháng này.

GÓC NHÌN KĨ THUẬT

Đồ thị D1
  • Cotton đã có phiên điều chỉnh tích cực để giúp thị trường nguội lại đà tăng. Điều này là cần thiết cho một đồ thị tăng mạnh trong quãnh thời gian dài. Thị trường dần hình thành vùng hỗ trợ ngắn hạn hiện tại quanh ngưỡng 120.74$ hợp lưu giữa 2 vùng hỗ trợ theo trendline và vùng cung cầu.
  • Quý NĐT nên cân nhắc quan sát thêm với cotton trong thời gian trong phiên ngày hôm nay vì đà giảm trong ngắn hạn hiện tại còn khá lớn.
  • Vùng target sóng trung hạn sắp tới cotton có thể đạt là quanh ngưỡng 132.96$ theo mốc Fibonacci mở rộng 1 nếu thị trường giữ được vùng hỗ trợ hiện tại.
  • Kháng cự hiện tại : 132.96$.
  • Hỗ trợ hiện tại : 120.74$.

CACAO

TIN TỨC

  • Ca cao tháng 3/2022 trong tuần vừa rồi đã có những tín hiệu đảo chiều mạnh khi nhu cầu ca cao của Bắc Mỹ giảm mạnh trong Q4. Ca cao hợp đồng tháng 3/22 kết thúc phiên giao dịch tuần trước quanh mốc 2576$ tương đương với mức giảm 3.12%.
  • Giá ca cao trong phiên thứ 6 tuần trước giảm mạnh sau khi nhu cầu ca cao ở Bắc Mỹ giảm bất ngờ. Hiệp hội Bánh kẹo Quốc gia đã báo cáo vào cuối ngày thứ Năm rằng sản lượng ca cao nghiền quý 4 của Bắc Mỹ bất ngờ giảm 1,2% so với cùng kỳ xuống 116.614 tấn, thấp hơn nhiều so với kỳ vọng tăng 4,6%.  
  • Ca cao London cũng chịu áp lực trong tuần này do lo ngại một đại dịch tồi tệ hơn ở châu Âu có thể dẫn đến các hạn chế đi lại có thể hạn chế nhu cầu sô cô la. Hôm thứ Năm, Đức báo cáo kỷ lục 133.536 trường hợp nhiễm Covid mới.
  • Trong khi đó, mưa nhẹ và gió nhẹ theo mùa ở hầu hết các vùng trồng ca cao của Bờ Biển Ngà đã làm tăng triển vọng cho cả vụ mùa từ tháng 10 đến tháng 3 và tháng 4 đến tháng 9. Trong một diễn biến khác, Tổ chức Ca cao Quốc tế trong báo cáo gần đây dự báo nhu cầu ca cao toàn cầu sẽ tăng 4,9 triệu tấn trong niên vụ 2021/2022 trong khi sản lượng sẽ tăng 5,2 triệu tấn do điều kiện thời tiết tốt hơn ở các nước sản xuất chính.

GÓC NHÌN KĨ THUẬT

Đồ thị D1
  • Giá ca cao vẫn tiếp tục quay trở về mốc hỗ trợ 2600$ khớp với mức Fibonacci quy hồi 0.618 khi thị trường không vượt qua được mốc kháng cự cứng hiện tại 2660$.
  • Nếu không vượt qua được thì khả năng thị trường sẽ tiếp tục đi ngang trong biên 2600-2660$.
  • Quý NĐT nếu đang nắm giữ vị thế với ca cao nên tiếp tục giữ trong ngắn hạn. Vùng hỗ trợ 2600$ vẫn còn hiệu lực mua lên nếu giá có quy hồi về lại trong ngắn hạn.
  • Hỗ trợ hiện tại : 2600$.
  • Kháng cự hiện tại : 2660$

CAO SU

TIN TỨC

  • Giá cao su ngày 22/1 giảm mạnh tại sàn Osaka và Thượng Hải. Nhu cầu nhập khẩu cao su của Mỹ tăng mạnh. Giá cao su kỳ hạn tháng 3/2022 trong phiên cuối tuần trước, giảm xuống mức  234.8 JPY/kg, tương đương với 0.76%.
  • Giá dầu tăng làm dấy lên mối lo ngại lạm phát tăng cao có thể ảnh hưởng đến sự phục hồi nền kinh tế toàn cầu và giảm nhu cầu đối với hàng hóa bao gồm cao su.
  • Căng thẳng tại Trung Đông gia tăng sẽ ảnh hưởng đến nền kinh tế toàn cầu và tiêu thụ nguyên liệu này, trong khi các trường hợp nhiễm Covid-19 tại Nhật Bản tăng thúc đẩy hoạt động bán tháo.
  • Nguồn cung cao su thiên nhiên toàn cầu dự kiến thiếu hụt do ảnh hưởng bởi mùa mưa kéo dài ở một số nước châu Á cuối năm 2021.
  • Kinh tế Mỹ đang dần hồi phục sau thời gian dài bị ảnh hưởng của dịch Covid-19, nhu cầu cao su của Mỹ được dự báo sẽ tiếp tục tăng cho tới năm 2023, nhờ nhu cầu của các sản phẩm từ cao su tăng. Dự báo xuất khẩu cao su của Việt Nam sang Mỹ sẽ tiếp tục khả quan trong năm 2022. 
  • Cơ cấu thị trường cung cấp cao su tổng hợp cho Mỹ trong 11 tháng năm 2021 có sự thay đổi khi thị phần cao su tổng hợp của Nhật Bản và Nga trong tổng nhập khẩu của Mỹ tăng; trong khi thị phần của Đức, Hàn Quốc, Mexico giảm. 

GÓC NHÌN KĨ THUẬT

Đồ thị D1
  • Cao su sau khi đạt mốc target thứ 2 quanh ngưỡng 242.6$ thì thị trường đang trong quá trình điều chỉnh trong ngắn hạn.
  • Các vị thế mua lên trong những ngày vừa rồi đã được chốt và khả năng chúng ta có thể có cơ hội mua lại cao su trong các phiên sắp tới khi xu hướng tăng của thị trường vẫn chưa bị phá vỡ.
  • Các mức hỗ trợ hiên tại của thị trường tại ngưỡng 229$ và 223$ quý NĐT có thể rải dần các vị thế mua lên quanh 2 mốc này.
  • Kháng cự hiện tại : 242$
  • Hỗ trợ hiện tại : 229$

Lưu ý:

– Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.

– Luôn ưu tiên quản trị vốn để tối thiểu hóa rủi ro và từ đó có thể kiếm lợi nhuận một cách bền vững từ thị trường.

– Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.


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