TIN TỨC

Cà phê Arabica có khối lượng giao dịch ở mức “khủng” hiếm thấy

– Giá cà phê trên sàn Ice US – New York tăng liên tiếp phiên thứ tư. Kỳ hạn giao ngay tháng 9 tăng thêm 2,70 cent, lên 186,55 cent/lb và kỳ hạn giao tháng 12 tăng thêm 2,60 cent, lên 189,60 cent/lb, các mức tăng đáng kể.

– Trong khi đó, kết thúc phiên giao dịch, giá cà phê trên sàn ICE Europe – London đảo chiều giảm. Kỳ hạn giao ngay tháng 9 giảm 10 USD, xuống 1.849 USD/tấn và kỳ hạn giao tháng 11 cũng giảm 10 USD, còn 1.854 USD/tấn, các mức giảm nhẹ. Khối lượng giao dịch dưới mức trung bình.

– Giá cà phê Robusta xuất khẩu loại 2, 5% đen vỡ, đứng ở mức giá 1.774 USD/tấn, FOB – HCM, với mức trừ lùi 70 – 80 USD/tấn theo giá kỳ hạn tháng 11 tại London. Giá cà phê nhân xô tại các tỉnh Tây nguyên giảm 100 – 200 đồng, xuống dao động trong khung 37.200 – 37.900 đồng/kg.

– Do cà phê Conilon Robusta đã được nông dân Brazil thu hoạch hoàn tất trước khi sương giá ập đến, nếu có thiệt hại cũng không đáng kể nên thị trường London đảo chiều giảm không ngoài dự đoán. Trong khi Việt Nam, quốc gia sản xuất Robusta hàng đầu báo cáo xuất khẩu cà phê tháng Bảy tăng 4,49% so với tháng trước và tăng 11,15% so với cùng kỳ năm trước mới là nguyên nhân làm giá cà phê Robusta chững lại, cho dù lũy kế xuất khẩu 7 tháng đầu năm 2021 đã giảm 8,06% so với cùng kỳ năm 2020.

– Sản lượng cà phê Brazil của vụ mùa năm 2022 tiếp tục thúc đẩy đầu cơ tại sàn New York tăng vị thế mua với khối lượng “khủng” cho thấy dấu hiệu đáng lo ngại. Ngoài ra còn có sự góp phần khi báo cáo Thị trường tháng Bảy của Tổ chức Cà phê Quốc tế (ICO) ước tính giảm lượng dư thừa toàn cầu trong niên vụ hiện tại 2020/2021 xuống ở mức 2,02 triệu bao so với ước tính trước đó là 2,26 triệu bao.

Báo cáo thị trường cà phê ngày 12 tháng 8 năm 2021

– Cơ quan Hải quan Việt Nam đã báo cáo rằng xuất khẩu cà phê của Việt Nam trong tháng 7 đã đăng ký thấp hơn 4,50% so với tháng trước, ở mức 2.038.217 bao. Con số này cao hơn một chút so với 1,83 triệu bao đã được dự báo ban đầu cho xuất khẩu cà phê của tháng. Điều này cho thấy kết quả xuất khẩu cộng dồn từ Việt Nam, nhà sản xuất cà phê robusta lớn nhất, thấp hơn 8,10% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái với tổng cộng 16.098.050 bao trong 7 tháng đầu năm 2021. Báo cáo cũng chỉ ra rằng doanh thu xuất khẩu cà phê trong 7 tháng đầu năm 2021 dương lịch thấp hơn 0,10% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, đạt tổng cộng khoảng 1,78 tỷ đô la Mỹ.

– Một trong những nhà xuất khẩu cà phê nổi tiếng và có uy tín của Brazil, Comexim đã đưa ra báo cáo rằng khu vực Nam Minas trong vành đai cà phê Brazil đã mất khoảng 19% tiềm năng cây trồng cho vụ mùa tiếp theo từ tháng 7 năm 2022 đến tháng 6 năm 2023, do sương giá đã trải qua ở những khu vực này vào tháng Bảy năm nay. Có một sự thừa nhận rằng lần xuất hiện sương giá này đã có tác động tiêu cực đến năng suất tiềm năng cho vụ mùa năm 2022 tiếp theo này.

– Tổ chức Cà phê Quốc tế ICO đã báo cáo rằng xuất khẩu cà phê toàn cầu trong tháng 6 cao hơn 4,10% so với cùng tháng năm trước, đạt tổng cộng 11,20 triệu bao. Theo họ, điều này đã góp phần đưa xuất khẩu cà phê toàn cầu lũy kế trong 9 tháng đầu năm từ tháng 10 năm 2020 đến tháng 9 năm 2021 cao hơn 2,50% so với cùng kỳ năm trước, với tổng số 98,55 triệu bao. Sự gia tăng tích lũy về xuất khẩu trong giai đoạn chín tháng, được thúc đẩy bởi Brazil, đóng góp 34% tổng kim ngạch xuất khẩu sang các thị trường tiêu dùng.

– Theo báo cáo ICO bao gồm tổng xuất khẩu toàn cầu, số liệu xuất khẩu tích lũy, từ Mexico và khối Trung Mỹ arabica truyền thống; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua và El Salvador, báo cáo rằng 9 tháng đầu năm cộng dồn cà phê giảm 1,30% xuống tổng cộng 12,80 triệu bao. Xuất khẩu từ Honduras, nhà sản xuất lớn nhất khu vực giảm 6,10%, trong khi xuất khẩu từ Nicaragua giảm 9,40%.

– Giao dịch chênh lệch hợp đồng từ tháng 9 đến tháng 9 giữa thị trường London và New York đã mở bị rộng ngày hôm qua để đăng ký điều này ở mức 99,53 usc / Lb. Điều này tương đương với mức chiết khấu 54..14% giá cho thị trường cà phê Robusta London. Sự chênh lệch giá này có thể sẽ được các nhà rang xay nhạy cảm với giá xem như một khoản chiết khấu thay thế hấp dẫn cho robusta so với cà phê arabica có giá trị tương đối cao hơn.

– Các kho dự trữ cà phê arabica đã được cấp chứng nhận được giữ trên sàn giao dịch New York đã giảm 2.400 bao vào ngày hôm qua ghi nhận những dự trữ này ở mức 2.158.987 bao, với 94,03% trong số những kho được chứng nhận này được giữ ở châu Âu với tổng số 2.030.002 bao và còn lại là 5,97 % được giữ ở Mỹ với tổng số 128,985 bao. Trong số này, có tổng cộng 1.145.541 bao, tương đương 53,06% số cà phê được đăng ký và lưu trữ trong các kho được chứng nhận của quốc gia tiêu dùng của sàn giao dịch, và hơn 39,23% số cà phê được chứng nhận này có xuất xứ từ Honduras.

GÓC NHÌN KỸ THUẬT

Cà phê Arabica

  • Vì xu hướng dài hạn của Arabica là tăng và lực mua tốt khiến giá không thể giảm về vùng hỗ trợ tiềm năng 160.70 – 166.70 bên dưới.
  • Link tham khảo bài phân tích trước: https://dautuhanghoa.vn/phan-tich-ca-phe-ngay-06-08-2021-gia-ca-phe-da-dieu-chinh-giam-nhu-du-doan/#ca-phe-arabica
  • Hiện tại thì giá Arabica đang tăng khá tốt và có xu hướng tăng lên đến vùng 195.50 – 202. Nhưng nhà đầu tư cũng nên lưu ý vùng 187.25 – 190 vì vùng này cũng có tồn tại lực bán ngắn hạn. Nếu vượt được vùng này thì xu hướng tăng vẫn được tiếp tục.
  • Nếu điều chỉnh giảm ở vùng giá hiện tại thì Arabica có thể quay trở lại vùng hỗ trợ ngắn hạn 171.50 – 177.50 => Đây là vùng tiềm năng cho vị thế mua của Arabica.
  • Ngoài ra, cũng không loại trừ khả năng là giá Arabica có thể phá thủng được vùng hỗ trợ ngắn hạn trên, và giảm về đến vùng hỗ trợ tiềm năng 160.70 – 166.70. Tuy nhiên, khả năng này khá là thấp. Cho nên nhà đầu tư hãy chờ tín hiệu tăng giá bằng các mô hình nến đảo chiều tại vùng hỗ trợ ngắn hạn đã đề cập ở trên để vị thế mua được an toàn hơn nếu Arabica có thể điều chỉnh về.

Cà phê Robusta

  • Sau khi phá vỡ được vùng kháng cự ngắn hạn 1790 – 1805 thì giá Robusta đã tăng khá mạnh và phần nào xác nhận cho xu hướng tăng đã quay trở lại.
  • Link tham khảo bài phân tích trước: https://dautuhanghoa.vn/phan-tich-ca-phe-ngay-06-08-2021-gia-ca-phe-da-dieu-chinh-giam-nhu-du-doan/#ca-phe-robusta
  • Hiện tại thì cà phê Robusta đang có xu hướng tăng đến vùng 1890 – 1940.
  • Tuy nhiên, giá Robusta hoàn toàn có thể điều chỉnh giảm về vùng hỗ trợ ngắn hạn 1725 – 1790 (đặc biệt lưu ý vùng 1725 – 1765), để lấy đà cho sóng tăng tiếp theo.
  • Khi giá Robusta quay trở về vùng hỗ trợ ngắn hạn đã đề cập ở trên thì nhà đầu tư nên chờ tín hiệu tăng giá để vào vị thế mua thì sẽ an toàn hơn. Vì nếu giá có thể quay trở về được vùng hỗ trợ này trong khoảng thời gian ngắn thì chứng tỏ cho áp lực bán trong ngắn hạn đang mạnh, điều này có thể khiến cho vùng hỗ trợ ngắn hạn trên vị phá thủng, về đến vùng hỗ trợ tiềm năng 1655 – 1700 bên dưới.

Lưu ý:

– Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.

– Luôn ưu tiên quản trị vốn để tối thiểu hóa rủi ro và từ đó có thể kiếm lợi nhuận một cách bền vững từ thị trường.

– Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.


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