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Thị Trường Hàng Hoá Sẽ Ra Sao Khi Fed Thắt Chặt Chính Sách Tiền Tệ?

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Để đối phó với các hậu quả nặng nề lên nền kinh tế của đại dịch Covid-19, Fed đã duy trì mức lãi suất thấp từ tháng 3/2020 và ban hành chính sách nới lỏng định lượng (QE) để hỗ trợ thị trường hoạt động. Nhờ vậy, nền kinh tế Mỹ bắt đầu có các dấu hiệu hồi phục tích cực, nhưng cùng với đó là mức lạm phát cao đáng báo động, làm cho đồng USD bị suy yếu. Nếu nền kinh tế Mỹ tăng trưởng nhanh hơn kế hoạch, Fed sẽ có động thái thay đổi chính sách tiền tệ.

Thắt chặt nguồn cung tiền tệ

Thông thường Fed sử dụng hai hình thức chính để thắt chặt nguồn cung tiền tệ, đó là tăng lãi suất ngắn hạn và bán đi các tài sản của cơ quan này như Trái phiếu chính phủ. Hình thức chủ yếu vẫn được Fed ưu tiên chính là tăng lãi suất.

Khi Fed tăng lãi suất, đồng nghĩa với việc giá trị của đồng USD sẽ tăng mạnh và gây áp lực lên toàn bộ các thị trường đầu tư, do người dân có xu hướng gửi tiền vào các ngân hàng. Lãi suất cao hơn làm cho các khoản vay trở nên đắt hơn khiến cho các cá nhân và các công ty không muốn vay vốn từ các ngân hàng, các hoạt động tiêu dùng và đầu tư cũng sẽ đồng loạt giảm.

Thắt chặt tiền tệ ảnh minh họa

Hệ quả của việc này là doanh số bán hàng của các công ty sẽ giảm, kéo theo đó là việc giảm bớt các hoạt động mở rộng sản xuất và cắt giảm lao động. Điều này sẽ kìm hãm tốc độ phát triển của nền kinh tế. Cùng với đó là sự sụt giảm của các thị trường đầu tư mạo hiểm như thị trường chứng khoán và thị trường tiền điện tử, dưới sức ép do sự tăng giá của đồng USD và lợi suất Trái phiếu chính phủ Mỹ.

Thêm vào đó, đồng USD tăng giá cũng làm cho việc sở hữu các loại tài sản, hàng hoá trở nên đắt hơn, đồng thời hạn chế các hoạt động đầu tư. Mỗi khi Fed thắt chặt chính sách tiền tệ, nền kinh tế của các nước trên thế giới cũng chịu ảnh hưởng. Dòng vốn ngoại sẽ bị rút dần khỏi các thị trường mới nổi và chi phí vay của các nước này cũng sẽ tăng cao.  

Ảnh hưởng thị trường hàng hóa

Đối với thị trường hàng hoá, Fed tăng lãi suất làm cho giá cả của các loại hàng hoá cũng chịu ảnh hưởng tiêu cực. Giáo sư Jeffrey Frankel của Đại học Harvard chỉ ra rằng, lãi suất tăng tác động đến giá cả hàng hoá bởi ba lý do chính bên cạch tác động lên các hoạt động kinh tế. Trước tiên lãi suất cao làm giảm nhu cầu và tăng nguồn cung của các mặt hàng có thể lưu trữ bằng cách khuyến khích các hoạt động khai thác ngay thay vì trong tương lai, qua đó thúc đẩy khai thác dầu mỏ và các quặng kim loại. Cùng với đó các công ty cũng giảm hàng tồn kho. Cuối cùng các quỹ tài chính sẽ dịch chuyển dòng vốn từ hàng hóa tương lai sang trái phiếu chính phủ.

Qua đó cho thấy hàng hóa tác động tiêu cực khi Fed thắt chặt chính sách tiền tệ.

Trong vài tháng tới, rất có thể Fed sẽ tiếp tục duy trì chính sách nới lỏng để chờ đợi các tín hiệu xác nhận liệu nền kinh tế có thực sự đang trên đà tăng trưởng nhanh. Thêm vào đó, việc thay đổi chính sách tiền tệ ảnh hưởng không chỉ tới nền kinh tế Mỹ, mà còn có tác động toàn cầu, nên sự thay đổi sớm nhất cũng có thể phải tới năm 2022.

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