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NHẬN ĐỊNH XU HƯỚNG CACAO TUẦN 26/10 – 30/10/2020:

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COCOA (CCE ):  Tăng ở mức cao nhất trong 3 tuần

Kết phiên giao dịch thứ 6 ngày 23/10/2020;  Hợp đồng Tương lai Côca Hoa Kỳ – 12/20 (CCZ0) đóng cửa tại giá 2,482.50 tăng  +0.34% so với phiên trước đó, nhưng tăng +5.00% so với tuần trước.

Giá ca cao hôm thứ Sáu ( 23/10) tăng ở mức cao nhất trong 3 tuần.

Giá ca cao cũng có hỗ trợ từ thứ Năm (23/10/2020)  khi Ngân hàng Thế giới công bố báo cáo hai năm một lần về “Triển vọng thị trường hàng hóa” nâng dự báo giá ca cao năm 2020 lên 2,40$/kg so với dự báo tháng 4 là 2,25$/kg và nâng dự báo giá ca cao năm 2021 lên 2,44$/kg so với Dự báo tháng 4 là  2,30$/kg.

Một yếu tố tăng giá nữa đối với ca cao là sản lượng thấp hơn từ Ghana, nước sản xuất ca cao lớn thứ hai thế giới. Ghana báo cáo vào ngày 29 tháng 9 rằng niên vụ ca cao 2019/20 của họ giảm -5,2% so với cùng kỳ năm trước xuống mức thấp nhất trong 5 năm là 770.000 tấn, thấp hơn ước tính 800.000 tấn.

Giá ca cao được hỗ trợ cơ bản từ những lo ngại về tình trạng bất ổn dân sự ở Bờ Biển Ngà trước cuộc bầu cử tổng thống của đất nước vào ngày 31 tháng 10. Chính phủ Bờ Biển Ngà gần đây đã gia hạn lệnh cấm biểu tình công khai cho đến ngày 1 tháng 11 “để ngăn chặn tình trạng gây rối trật tự công cộng.” Ít nhất một chục người đã thiệt mạng ở Bờ Biển Ngà và vài trăm người bị thương kể từ khi Tổng thống Bờ Biển Ngà Ouattara tuyên bố vào tháng trước rằng ông sẽ tranh cử nhiệm kỳ thứ ba gây tranh cãi.

Giá ca cao còn được hỗ trợ do tồn kho ca cao do ICE giám sát đã giảm đều đặn trong 5 tháng qua và xuống mức thấp nhất trong 8 tháng.

Đồng đô la yếu hơn đã làm dấy lên một số đợt bán khống hợp đồng cacao kỳ hạn

Giá ca cao tiếp tục giảm do lo ngại về nhu cầu yếu. Hiệp hội Ca cao Châu Á đã báo cáo vào thứ Sáu tuần trước rằng lượng ca cao xay tại Châu Á quý 3 giảm -10% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái xuống còn 202.665 tấn, thấp hơn nhiều so với kỳ vọng là -4,3%.

Hiệp hội Ca cao châu Âu báo cáo hôm thứ Năm tuần trước rằng chế biến ca cao quý 3 của châu Âu giảm -4,7% so với cùng kỳ năm trước xuống 345.739 tấn, mức chế biến thấp nhất trong quý thứ ba trong bốn năm.

Hội đồng Ca cao Malaysia đã báo cáo hôm thứ Ba tuần trước rằng lượng ca cao nghiền quý 3 của Malaysia giảm -16% so với cùng kỳ năm trước xuống 76.491 tấn, giảm trong quý thứ ba liên tiếp.

Giá ca cao cũng chịu áp lực do lo ngại rằng các biện pháp đóng cửa và cách ly mới được áp dụng tại một số thành phố lớn nhất châu Âu sẽ hạn chế tiêu thụ và nhu cầu sôcôla. Pháp đã áp đặt lệnh giới nghiêm tại 9 thành phố lớn nhất của họ trong khoảng thời gian từ 9 giờ tối đến 6 giờ sáng, và người dân London sẽ bị cấm đi lại với các hộ gia đình khác trong nhà. Cũng có lo ngại về nhu cầu sô cô la của Hoa Kỳ yếu hơn bình thường trong dịp lễ Halloween.

Marex Spectron dự báo là giá ca cao giảm. Marex dự đoán thặng dư ca cao toàn cầu 2020/21 sẽ tăng lên +76.000 tấn từ mức thặng dư ca cao 2019/20 là +23.000 tấn. Ngoài ra, Marex dự báo sản lượng ca cao toàn cầu 2020/21 sẽ tăng lên mức kỷ lục 4,8 triệu tấn.

Nguồn cung ca cao dồi dào từ Bờ Biển Ngà có tác động tiêu cực đến giá ca cao. Chính phủ Bờ Biển Ngà báo cáo hôm thứ Hai rằng nông dân Bờ Biển Ngà đã gửi 218.590 tấn ca cao đến các cảng trong thời gian từ ngày 1 đến ngày 18 tháng 10, tăng 8,2% so với cùng kỳ.

PHÂN TÍCH KỸ THUẬT

Quan sát biểu đồ H4 chúng ta thấy:

  • Mô hình hai đáy
  • Kênh giảm bị phá vỡ’
  • RSI quá bán
  • MACD phân kỳ cho tín hiệu tăng.

Lưu ý:

  • Tất cả các kịch bản được xây dựng để tham khảo không mang tính khuyến nghị mua- bán. Nhà đầu tư tự đưa ra quyết định cũng như chịu trách nhiệm với chính quyết định của mình.
  • Tất cả các chiến lược giao dịch cần xem thêm tín hiệu xác nhận trước khi vào lênh. .
  • Tuân thủ tuyệt đối quản lý vốn tỉ lệ đòn bẩy tối đa là 1:20 và đặt STP < 3% tài khoản.

Chúc quý nhà đầu tư giao dịch hiệu quả!

LÊ VIẾT HÙNG

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