Phân Tích Ca Cao Ngày 26/05/2021: Ca Cao Không Bị Ảnh Hưởng Bởi “Siêu Chu Kỳ Hàng Hóa”

TIN TỨC

Cao cao tăng giảm thất thường

– Giá cacao giảm 0.38% về mức 2380 USD/tấn.

– Lũy kế xuất khẩu ca cao kể từ đầu niên vụ tại Bờ Biển Ngà đang cao hơn gần 8% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Tuy nhiên, đây cũng không phải là thông tin mới, do đó đã không có tác động đáng kể đến diễn biến của giá ca cao. Ở chiều ngược lại, sự tăng giá của đồng bảng Anh đã là yêu tố khiến giá ca cao kết thúc khiên với sắc đỏ.

Bờ Biển Ngà: Lượng cacao được vận chuyển tới các cảng ước tính đạt 1.963 triệu tấn

– Trong giai đoạn 01/10 đến 23/05, lượng ca cao được vận chuyển tới cảng nhằm phục vụ hoạt động xuất khẩu tại các cảng biển của Bờ Biển Ngà đạt tổng cộng 1.963 triệu tấn, cao hơn 7.9% so với mức 1.819 triệu tấn cùng kỳ niên vụ trước. Thu hoạch ca cao giữa vụ 2020/21 tại Bờ Biển Ngà đã bắt đầu từ ngày 01/04 và kéo dài tới 30/09.

– Trong tuần từ 17/05 đến 23/05, ước tính khoảng 23,000 tấn ca cao đã được vận chuyển tới cảng Abidjan, và 24,000 tấn đã tới cảng San Pedro. Tổng cộng, lượng cacao được vận chuyển tới các cảng trong giai đoạn này đạt 47,000 tấn, cao hơn nhiều so với mức 29,000 tấn trong cùng kỳ năm ngoái.

Ca cao không bị ảnh hưởng bởi sức nóng lạm phát

– Đây là mặt hàng có hiệu suất kém nhất trong năm mặc dù là thành phần chính trong một số loại bánh kẹo được yêu thích nhất.

– Ca cao – nguyên liệu thô cho sôcôla, bánh nướng và kem, giảm giá hơn 8% kể từ đầu năm 2021, hoàn toàn không nằm trên con thuyền lạm phát đã đưa vô số hàng hóa từ đậu nành đến đồng và gỗ xẻ đi rất xa.

– Sản xuất dư thừa là thủ phạm. Như nhà phân tích kỳ cựu Jack Scoville của Price Futures Group ở Chicago đã nói: “Vấn đề của ca cao bắt đầu, giống như mọi thứ khác, với đại dịch COVID-19 làm giảm nhu cầu toàn cầu về sôcôla và các món ăn liên quan.”

– Scoville cho biết việc nghiền hạt ca cao để sản xuất bơ và bột cần thiết cho bánh kẹo đã cho thấy sự cải thiện đáng khích lệ ở châu Á và Bắc Mỹ, thậm chí cả châu Âu, bất chấp việc khối này gặp nhiều vấn đề với đại dịch. Tuy nhiên, “nguồn cung luôn có cho bất kỳ nhu cầu nào tăng lên” ông nói, đề cập đến tình trạng dư thừa trong.

– Một số nhà nghiên cứu cho biết tình hình sẽ tốt hơn đối với ca cao khi việc thành phố New York sắp được mở cửa trở lại, dự kiến ​​sẽ kéo theo các điểm đến và thủ đô lớn khác của thế giới vốn thích du lịch và giải trí là hai chất xúc tác cho việc tiêu thụ các mặt hàng như sôcôla.

– Điều không ai chắc chắn là còn bao lâu nữa trước khi những điều đó tạo ra sự khác biệt có ý nghĩa đối với nhu cầu ca cao, và giá hạt cà phê có thể tăng cao như thế nào vào thời điểm đó.

– Rabobank, một trong những ngân hàng nông nghiệp có thẩm quyền nhất thế giới, đã đưa ra triển vọng về ca cao cho quý II: “Theo quan điểm của chúng tôi, rủi ro đang nghiêng về phía tăng, với nhu cầu toàn cầu có khả năng tiếp tục phục hồi và thậm chí tăng trong khi sản lượng cho năm 2021/22 vẫn chưa rõ ràng, với khả năng sản lượng thấp hơn dự kiến ​​ban đầu. Các nhà đầu cơ cũng có khả năng xây dựng một vị thế mua khá lớn trong những tháng tới, điều này có thể thu hút những người bán khống và những người tham gia trong ngành với mức độ hạn chế về kỳ hạn.”

GÓC NHÌN KỸ THUẬT

  • Giá ca cao đang có xu hướng giảm mạnh trong ngắn hạn => Ưu tiên vị thế bán.
  • Hiện tại ca cao đang có xu hướng giảm về vùng hỗ trợ cứng và rộng 2317 – 2365, đặc biệt là vùng 2317 – 2337.
  • Hoặc nếu có sự hồi phục khiến ca cao có thể tăng giá nhẹ tại vùng giá hiện tại thì nhà đầu tư cũng nên cẩn trọng rằng việc tăng giá đó vẫn chỉ là tăng ngắn hạn trong xu hướng giảm trước đó, và có thể hồi phục tiệm cận về vùng kháng cự tiềm năng 2450 – 2492 trước khi giảm tiếp.
  • Còn nếu giá ca cao tiếp tục giảm mạnh và phá vỡ vùng hỗ trợ cứng thì ca cao có khả năng sẽ tiếp tục giảm về vùng 2250 – 2290 phía bên dưới.

Lưu ý:

– Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.

– Luôn ưu tiên quản trị vốn để tối thiểu hóa rủi ro và từ đó có thể kiếm lợi nhuận một cách bền vững từ thị trường.

– Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.


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