Phân Tích Cà Phê Arabica Và RoBusta Ngày 26/05/2021: Tốt Xấu Bất Phân

TIN TỨC

Cà phê vẫn được hỗ trợ tốt bởi tin tức

– Giá Arabica tăng 1.01% lên 150.50 cent/pound, và giá cà phê Robusta tăng 0.68% lên 1488 USD/tấn.

– Cơ quan Cung ứng Mùa vụ của chính phủ Brazil – CONAB cho biết sản lượng cà phê trong năm nay của Brazil sẽ ở mức thấp nhất kể từ năm 2017. Sản lượng cà phê Arabica trong năm 2021 của dự kiến sẽ thấp 31% so với năm ngoái đã là thông tin hỗ trợ giá. Đối với cà phê Robusta, tuy sản lượng trong năm 2021 của Brazil được dự báo tăng 8% so với năm ngoái, nhưng do là nguyên liệu đầu vào để sản xuất cà phê hóa tan, mức tăng này có thể sẽ là không đủ khi nhu cầu sử dụng cà phê hòa tan tăng trong bối cảnh biện pháp giãn cách xã hội vẫn đang được áp dụng tại một số quốc gia.

Tổng quan thị trường cà phê trong tuần

– Báo cáo Cam kết thương nhân mới nhất từ thị trường cà phê Arabica – New York cho thấy các quỹ quản lý tiền tệ đã cắt giảm 0.23% vị thế mua ròng của họ trong tuần giao dịch tính đến thứ Ba ngày 18 tháng 5, đánh dấu vị thế mua ròng mới là 41,249 lô. Trong khi đó, các quỹ chỉ số đã cắt giảm vị thế mua ròng trên thị trường đi 0.32%, với tổng vị thế mua ròng là 78,980 lô.

– Trong cùng tuần, khu vực Đầu cơ Phi Thương mại của thị trường này đã tăng vị thế mua ròng trên thị trường thêm 1.97% tăng tổng vị thế mua ròng thêm 35,346 lô, tương đương 10,020,434 bao.

– Mạng lưới nông nghiệp toàn cầu có uy tín của Bộ Nông nghiệp Hoa Kỳ đã dự báo rằng vụ mùa tiếp theo từ tháng 10 năm 2021 đến tháng 9 năm 2022 của Việt Nam, dự kiến bắt đầu thu hoạch vào tháng 10, sẽ cao hơn 6.31% so với niên vụ trước đó với tổng 30.83 triệu bao, dự đoán vụ này sẽ tạo ra từ 29.68 triệu bao cà phê Robusta và 1.15 triệu bao cà phê Arabica. Thêm vào đó, USDA dự đoán rằng tồn kho từ niên vụ cà phê hiện tại sẽ tăng thêm 7.23 triệu bao, cho thấy nguồn cung tiếp tục tốt trong niên vụ cà phê tiếp theo từ tháng 10 năm 2021 đến tháng 9 năm 2022.

– Trong niên vụ mới từ tháng 10 năm 2021 đến tháng 9 năm 2022 này, dự báo Việt Nam sẽ xuất khẩu cà phê nhiều hơn 9.30% (2.2 triệu bao) so với niên vụ cà phê hiện tại từ tháng 10 năm 2020 đến tháng 9 năm 2021, với tổng số là 25.85 triệu bao. Sự gia tăng xuất khẩu này dự kiến do những khó khăn về hậu cần liên tục gặp phải trong năm nay ở Việt Nam.

– Các kho dự trữ cà phê Arabica đã được sơ chế trên sàn giao dịch New York đã tăng 17,770 bao vào ngày hôm qua, ghi nhận ở mức 2,067,706 bao, với 93.56% được giữ ở châu Âu với tổng số 1,934,579 bao và còn lại 6.44 % được giữ ở Mỹ với tổng số 133,127 bao.

– Phiên giao dịch ngày 25 tháng 5 là một phiên trái chiếu trên thị trường hàng hóa, khi đồng Dollar Mỹ suy yếu, trong khi đó các nhà đầu tư chờ đợi dữ liệu tuần này cho thấy tốc độ phục hồi kinh tế ở Mỹ. Các mặt hàng đường, bạc và bạch kim kết thúc ngày khả quan. Tuy nhiên, Robusta được giao dịch ở London không thay đổi trong ngày, trong khi Arabica, ca cao, ngô, lúa mì, đậu nành và palladium ở New York kết thúc ngày với mức giá giảm nhẹ.

Brazil: CONAB nâng dự báo sản lượng cà phê Arabica trong năm 2021 lên mức 33.36 triệu bao

– Cơ quan Cung ứng Mùa vụ của chính phủ Brazil – CONAB cho biết, tổng sản lượng cà phê trong năm 2021 của Brazil dự kiến đạt 48.8 triệu bao, thấp hơn 22.6% so với năm ngoái do cà phê Arabica đang ở trong năm sản lượng thấp và lượng mưa thấp hơn dự kiến tại một số khu vực trồng cà phê chính.

– Sản lượng cà phê Arabica trong năm 2021 của Brazil được CONAB dự báo ở mức 33.36 triệu bao, cao hơn so với khoảng dự đoán 29.7 – 33 triệu bao trong báo cáo tháng 1. Trong khi đó, sản lượng cà phê Robusta của Brazil dự kiến đạt 15.44 triệu bao, nằm trong khoảng dự đoán 14.13 – 16.6 triệu bao trong dự báo trước.

Nông dân Brazil đang muốn giá cà phê bán trước cao hơn khi thâm hụt tăng cao

– Nông dân trồng cà phê ở nước sản xuất hàng đầu Brazil đang cố gắng đàm phán lại hợp đồng mua bán của họ với các nhà xuất khẩu và thương nhân với giá cao hơn, làm dấy lên nỗi lo sợ về tình trạng vi phạm hợp đồng lan rộng, các nhà môi giới, thương nhân và một liên minh đại diện cho người trồng cho biết.

– Nông dân và đại diện của họ muốn được nhiều hơn những gì họ đã chấp nhận vài tháng hoặc thậm chí một năm trước, giá cà phê đã tăng vì thời tiết khô hạn hơn bình thường dự kiến sẽ làm giảm mạnh sản lượng. Những nông dân khác giao cà phê trễ đang yêu cầu hoãn giao hàng sang năm sau.

– “Những nông dân đã bán cà phê trong khoảng 450-650 reais (207.05 USD) hiện đang xem xét tỷ giá giao ngay là 800. Tôi nghĩ vi phạm hợp đồng sẽ là một vấn đề lớn.” một thương nhân có trụ sở tại Hà Lan cho biết hôm thứ Hai.

– Các nhà kinh doanh hàng hóa quốc tế phải đối mặt với khoản lỗ nặng nếu họ trả tiền cho cà phê bây giờ nhiều hơn giá bán cho các nhà rang xay nhiều tháng trước. Tệ hơn nữa, họ có thể phải tìm nguồn cung cấp cà phê đắt đỏ trên thị trường giao ngay nếu nông dân vi phạm hợp đồng .

– Các nguồn tin cho biết, các vụ vi phạm vẫn chưa xảy ra vì vụ thu hoạch chỉ mới bắt đầu, nhưng khả năng sẽ xảy ra trong vòng vài tháng tới. “Luật sư của các nông dân đã gọi điện cho chúng tôi, yêu cầu đàm phán lại. Chúng tôi đã nói rằng chúng tôi không thể thay đổi các điều khoản ngay bây giờ”, người đứng đầu một nhà thương mại hàng hóa quốc tế Brazil cho biết. “Nếu một nông dân quyết định vi phạm hợp đồng, ước tính sẽ mất khoảng 200 reais (37.60 USD) mỗi bao, một con số rất nhiều”, anh ấy nói vào cuối ngày thứ Hai.

– Các vụ vi phạm hợp đồng là rất hiếm trong lĩnh vực cà phê mặc dù các thương nhân đã trích dẫn một số trường hợp vào năm 2014, khi đợt hạn hán nghiêm trọng xảy ra ở Brazil và giá cà phê tăng mạnh. Các nhà xuất khẩu cà phê kinh doanh hàng nghìn bao nên thiệt hại có thể lên đến hàng triệu đô.

– Giá cà phê Arabica đã tăng gần 30% kể từ đầu tháng 4 lên mức cao nhất trong 4 năm vào tuần trước do nguồn cung khan hiếm và nhu cầu phục hồi sau COVID. Sergio Hazan, giám đốc điều hành của Comexim, một trong những nhà xuất khẩu lớn nhất của Brazil, cho biết: “Chúng tôi tin rằng sẽ có nông dân vi phạm hợp đồng, nhưng chúng tôi hy vọng đó sẽ là một con số nhỏ. Hazan cho biết Comexim chưa nhận được yêu cầu đàm phán lại, phần lớn là do công ty có ít hợp đồng giao hàng trong tương lai. Nhưng anh ấy biết rằng những yêu cầu như vậy đã được đưa ra cho những người khác. Các nhà môi giới nhỏ hơn đã nhận được yêu cầu đàm phán lại, nhưng cho biết nông dân sẽ suy nghĩ kỹ trước khi vi phạm hợp đồng vì sợ phải đối mặt với sự tẩy chay tiềm tàng từ người mua.

– Liên đoàn nông dân Sincal đã bảo vệ cho lý do đàm phán lại, với lý do năm nay mùa vụ kém. “Chúng tôi không bảo mọi người phá vỡ hợp đồng … nhưng những nông dân không sản xuất đủ sẽ phải ngồi với thương nhân và giải thích tình hình”, Giám đốc của Sincal, Marco Antonio Jacob, cho biết.

USDA Brazil: Dự báo sản lượng cà phê niên vụ 2021/22 ở mức 56.3 triệu bao

– USDA chi nhánh Brazil cho biết, sản lượng cà phê niên vụ 2021/22 của Brazil dự kiến đạt 56.3 triệu bao, thấp hơn 19% so với mức 69.9 triệu bao trong niên vụ 2020/21. Trong đó bao gồm 35 triệu bao cà phê Arabica, giảm 30% so với niên vụ trước, và 21.2 triệu tấn cà phê Robusta, cao hơn 1.1 triệu tấn so với niên vụ 2020/21.

– Dự báo sản lượng thấp hơn cũng ảnh hưởng tới số liệu xuất khẩu dự kiến. Cụ thể, xuất khẩu cà phê niên vụ 2021/22 của Brazil được dự báo ở mức 35.22 triệu bao, thấp hơn nhiều so với mức kỷ lục 45.03 triệu bao trong niên vụ 2020/21.

Giá cà phê hôm nay 26/5: Tiếp tục tăng lên trên mốc 33.000 đồng/kg

– Giá cà phê tại các vùng trọng điểm Tây Nguyên hôm nay 26/5 lên mức 32.200 – 33.100 đồng/kg sau khi tăng tiếp 200 đồng. Mức giá thấp nhất ở 32.200 đồng/kg tại Lâm Đồng, cao nhất ở 33.100 đồng/kg tại Đắk Lắk; Gia Lai và Đắk Nông đều đạt mức 33.000 đồng/kg. Tại cảng TPHCM, robusta xuất khẩu loại 2, tỷ lệ đen vỡ 5% chốt ở 1.567 USD/tấn (FOB), chênh lệch +55 USD/tấn.

So với giá tham chiếu cà phê robusta trên sàn London của phiên liền trước

– Theo chuyên gia Nguyễn Quang Bình, chỉ còn 4 tháng nữa là hết niên vụ 2020/21. Xem ra thị trường cà phê trong nước và xuất khẩu chỉ có thể hoạt động nhịp nhàng khi có giá mới với sự chấp nhận giá cước mới của các nhà nhập khẩu.

– Trên thế giới, mở cửa phiên 26/5 hai sàn cà phê đồng loạt sắc xanh. Giá cà phê robusta kỳ hạn tháng 9/2021 trên sàn London cộng 8 USD, tương đương 0,53% lên 1.512 USD/tấn. Giá arabica kỳ hạn tháng 7 trên sàn New York tăng 1,5 cent, tương đương 1,01% chốt ở 150,5 US cent/lb.

Đơn vị tính: USD Cent/lb | 1USD = 100cent | 1Lb ~ 0,45Kg | Đơn vị giao dịch: lot

– Hôm qua là phiên khóa sổ vị thế kinh doanh đã cho thấy tác động của chỉ số đồng USD (DXY) lên giá cà phê thế giới là rất rõ. Chỉ số DXY có lúc xuống thấp nhất trong gần 5 tháng qua. Giới đầu cơ mang USD bán mạnh do lo ngại lạm phát.

– Brazil là nước sản xuất arabica hàng đầu thế giới. Thời tiết khô hạn tại đây có thể làm hạn chế xuất khẩu từ nước này đã góp phần hỗ trợ giá cà phê arabica tăng lên.

– Người trồng cà phê Brazil dự kiến sẽ sản xuất 48,8 triệu bao cà phê (loại 60kg) trong năm 2021, thấp hơn 22% so với năm 2020 và là sản lượng thấp nhất kể từ năm 2017, theo cơ quan thống kê nông nghiệp của chính phủ Brazil – Conab.

– Hiện những người trồng cà phê ở Brazil đang cố gắng đàm phán lại hợp đồng mua bán của họ với các nhà xuất khẩu và thương nhân để đẩy giá tăng lên, làm dấy lên nỗi lo sợ có thể dẫn tới 1 số trường hợp vỡ nợ.

– Nhiều nước tiêu thụ cà phê ở châu Âu và Mỹ đã dỡ lệnh phong tỏa, hàng quán cà phê, khách sạn nhà hàng đã mở cửa trở lại, sau khi một tỷ lệ lớn người dân tại đó được tiêm chủng mở rộng vắc – xin chống dịch Covid-19. Dù kỳ vọng nhu cầu tiêu thụ tăng dần nhờ các nước tiêu thụ xóa lệnh giãn cách, cà phê xuất khẩu Việt Nam cũng chưa được đi tự do vì giới kinh doanh chưa chịu nổi với giá cước cao hiện nay.

GÓC NHÌN KỸ THUẬT

  • Cà phê Arabica

– Sau khi không thể phá vỡ vùng đỉnh cũ thì giá cà phê Arabica đang có xu hướng tích lũy.

– Hiện tại thì Arabica vẫn đang trong xu hướng tăng và đường trendline đang được bảo vệ tốt => Ưu tiên vị thế mua.

– Nếu biên tích lũy tăng ngày càng hẹp dần theo đường trendline tăng thì khả năng cao là giá Arabica sẽ phá vỡ vùng đỉnh cũ và tiếp tục tăng đến vùng kháng cự dài hạn 163 – 176 phía trên.

– Còn nếu đường trendline bị phá vỡ theo xu hướng giảm thì tạm thời Arabica có thể sẽ tìm về vùng hỗ trợ ngắn hạn 139.60 – 143 phía bên dưới.

  • Cà phê Robusta

– Giá cà phê Robusta đã quay về kiểm tra vùng hỗ trợ 1440 – 1480 một lần nữa và đã bật tăng.

– Xu hướng chính của Robusta ở hiện tại vẫn đang là tăng => Ưu tiên vị thế mua.

– Nhưng giá Robusta đang trong con sóng điều chỉnh giảm ngắn hạn, cho đến khi nào giá chưa phá vỡ được đường trendline giảm thì Robusta vẫn có khả năng tiếp tục giảm hoặc tích lũy ngắn hạn.

– Nếu phá vỡ đường trendline giảm này thì khả năng rất cao là giá Robusta có thể sẽ quay lại xu hướng tăng trước đó và tiếp tục tiệm cận lại vùng đỉnh cũ 1530 – 1560.

Lưu ý:

– Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.

– Luôn ưu tiên quản trị vốn để tối thiểu hóa rủi ro và từ đó có thể kiếm lợi nhuận một cách bền vững từ thị trường.

– Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.


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