Phân Tích Họ Đậu Tương Ngày 07/06/2021: “Bật Gap” Mạnh Hưởng Ứng Siêu Chu Kỳ

TIN TỨC

Nông sản đồng loạt tăng mạnh

Giá đậu tương tăng 3.48% về mức 1583.75 cents/giạ.

Khô hạn ở Midwest và đà tăng của dầu đậu tương là yếu tố đã hỗ trợ cho giá của mặt hàng này trong tuần vừa qua.

Giá dầu đậu tương tăng mạnh 8.44%, lên mức 71.34 cent/pound.

Giá khô đậu tương cũng tăng không đáng kể lên mức 396.2 USD/tấn, cao hơn 0.18%.

Trong tuần này, Bộ nông nghiệp Mỹ (USDA) sẽ công bố báo cáo Cung-cầu thế giới tháng 6 vào 23:00 thứ Năm, 10/06/2021. Trước tình hình khô hạn ở Brazil và tốc độ nhập khẩu ngô được đẩy mạnh của Trung Quốc trong thời gian vừa qua, có thể sẽ có nhiều thay đổi quan trọng và tác động mạnh đến các mặt hàng ngũ cốc sau báo cáo này.

Dự trữ đậu tương Trung Quốc đạt mức cao 11 tuần mặc dù ép đậu tương tăng

Dự trữ đậu tương ở Trung Quốc tăng 240,000 tấn vào tuần trước đạt 5.42 triệu tấn, mức tồn kho cao nhất kể từ đầu tháng 3 khi lượng lớn đậu Brazil cập bến, dữ liệu từ Trung tâm Thông tin Dầu và Ngũ cốc Quốc gia Trung Quốc (CNGOIC) cho thấy hôm thứ Năm.

– Khối lượng đậu tương nghiền hàng tuần cũng tăng vọt, tăng 150,000 tấn lên 2.07 triệu tấn trong tuần trước, cao hơn mức trung bình 1.82 triệu tấn trong ba năm. “Lượng đậu tương đến tiếp tục tăng trong tháng 6 và tháng 7, và nhu cầu đối với khô đậu cũng được cải thiện. Các máy ép đang sẵn sàng để hoạt động” CNGOIC cho biết.

– Dự trữ bột đậu tương tăng lên 720,000 tấn, tăng 40,000 tấn so với tuần trước và dự kiến sẽ tiếp tục tăng trong tuần mới do nhu cầu mạnh mẽ từ lĩnh vực thức ăn chăn nuôi. Trong khi đó, dự trữ dầu đậu tăng 10,000 tấn so với tuần trước, đạt 750,000 tấn, nhưng vẫn giảm 190,000 tấn so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.

Bộ trưởng Nông nghiệp Brazil: Quy định dầu diesel sinh học Brazil quay lại mức cũ

– Bộ trưởng Bộ Nông nghiệp Tereza Cristina cho biết quy định về trộn hỗn hợp xăng với diesel sinh học của Brazil sẽ quay lại 13% trong phiên đấu thầu tiếp theo, sau khi giảm xuống còn 10% trong hai đợt đấu thầu cuối cùng để giao hàng giữa tháng 5 và tháng 8.

– Cristina nói rằng quy định cắt giảm “không phải là điều mà chính phủ muốn làm” nhưng là điều cần thiết để giảm thiểu việc thiếu nguồn cung cho ngành công nghiệp thịt trong nước.

– Bộ trưởng nói thêm rằng nếu “điều kiện thu hoạch cho phép”, quy định có thể được nâng lên 15% vào cuối năm nay.

– Dầu đậu tương chiếm khoảng 71% nguyên liệu dầu diesel sinh học của Brazil và giá đậu tương tăng đã là yếu tố chính khiến chính phủ quyết định cắt giảm quy định vào tháng Tư. Lạm phát giá tiêu dùng đã gây khó khăn cho chính phủ và điều đó có thể khiến tỷ lệ trộn bắt buộc xăng dầu lên 13% hoặc cao hơn do sự phụ thuộc lớn của Brazil vào vận tải bằng xe tải.

– Lạm phát đã gia tăng kể từ đầu năm, được hỗ trợ bởi đồng nội tệ yếu và giá năng lượng tăng cao. Giá cả có thể bị ảnh hưởng nhiều hơn trong những tháng tới khi hóa đơn tiền điện trở nên đắt đỏ hơn do hạn hán nghiêm trọng đã làm giảm mực nước tại các đập thủy điện.

Brazil: Bán hàng đậu tương niên vụ 2021/22 ước tính đạt 19.2% sản lượng dự kiến

– Hãng tư vấn Safras & Mercado cho biết, bán hàng đậu tương niên vụ 2021/22 của Brazil ước tính đạt 19.2% sản lượng dự kiến, thấp hơn so với mức 35.6% cùng kỳ năm ngoái, nhưng cao hơn so với mức 14% trung bình 5 năm.

– Trong khi đó, bán hàng đậu tương niên vụ 2020/21 của nông dân tại đây ước tính đạt 75.6% tổng sản lượng, chậm hơn so với mức 88.7% cùng kỳ niên vụ trước, nhưng cao hơn mức 71.5% trung bình 5 năm.

Giá dầu đậu vật chất ở Argentina đạt mức thấp kỷ lục trong khi giá CBOT tăng vọt 71 cent/pound

– Dữ liệu của Agricensus cho thấy, nhu cầu thấp đối với dầu đậu vật chất từ nhà xuất khẩu lớn nhất thế giới đã gây ra chênh lệch giữa giá dầu đậu của Argentina và hợp đồng tương lai dầu đậu Chicago, vốn đã tăng vọt khi lượng tồn kho của Mỹ suy giảm. Giá mặt hàng dầu đậu ở Argentina đã giảm xuống mức thấp kỷ lục khi tồn kho của Mỹ hắt chặt hỗ trợ giá trị trên sàn giao dịch trong khi nhu cầu giảm từ Ấn Độ và Trung Quốc đã gây áp lực lên giá dầu đậu vật chất.

– Các lô hàng dầu đậu giao tháng 7 đã giảm 10.30 cent/pound so với giá hợp đồng tương lai CBOT tháng 7, gấp đôi mức giảm 5 cent/pound vào tuần trước và so với mức giảm 1 cent/pound so với CBOT vào thời điểm này năm ngoái.

– “Tôi tin rằng đây là mức thấp nhất từ trước đến nay đối với dầu đậu cơ sở của Argentina,” một nhà môi giới Argentina nói với Agricensus, trong khi một nguồn giao dịch khác nói thêm: “Tôi chưa từng thấy giá ở mức thấp như thế này”. Giá dầu đậu tương Argentina đã chênh lệch xa hơn so với giá dầu đậu tương CBOT trong những tuần qua do xuất khẩu dầu không thể tìm được nguồn cầu, buộc các nhà máy ép ở Argentina phải giảm giá chào hàng so với giá CBOT tăng vọt.

– “Giá dầu đậu Argentina đang giảm vì các nước nhập khẩu, chẳng hạn như Ấn Độ và Trung Quốc không chấp nhận trả những mức giá cao”, nhà môi giới nói thêm. Đồng thời, hợp đồng tương lai CBOT đã vượt qua mức 70 cent/pound lần thứ tư trong lịch sử và đạt mức cao nhất mọi thời đại trong phiên giao dịch ngày vào thứ Năm. Giá dầu đậu CBOT tháng gần nhất được giao dịch ở mức 71.34 cent/pound (1,574.77 USD/tấn), tăng 68% kể từ đầu năm, trong khi lô hàng đậu nành Argentina giao ngay có giá trị 1,347.25 USD/tấn, tăng 28% so với cùng kỳ .

– “Giá CBOT đang ở mức cao nhất trong lịch sử trong khi giá dầu hướng dương đang giảm và dầu cọ cũng vẫn đang có tính cạnh tranh,” một nguồn cho biết, đồng thời nói thêm rằng giá mặt hàng cơ sở của Argentina so với CBOT cần phải điều chỉnh thấp hơn để duy trì tính cạnh tranh trên thị trường toàn cầu. Giá dầu đậu CBOT tăng mạnh được hỗ trợ bởi sự tăng nhiệt của thị trường dầu thô, thắt chặt nguồn dự trữ dầu đậu của Mỹ trong bối cảnh giá dầu giảm chậm lại và nhu cầu cao từ ngành công nghiệp diesel sinh học của Mỹ.

– Trong khi đó, nhu cầu khô đậu tương của Mỹ khá yếu, buộc giá đậu tương cao hơn để làm cho lợi nhuận biên rộng ra. Một nhà môi giới có trụ sở tại Mỹ nói với Agricensus: “Thị trường giao ngay khô đậu tương đã suy yếu và hiện chưa có dấu hiệu hồi phục cùng với cuộc tấn công mạng vào JBS”, đề cập đến một cuộc tấn công nhằm vào một trong những nhà sản xuất thịt lớn nhất thế giới. “Không ai ép đậu chỉ để lấy dầu. Vì vậy, nhu cầu về khô đậu yếu và nhu cầu về dầu cao sẽ khiến giá dầu tăng mỗi ngày ”, nguồn tin cho biết.

GÓC NHÌN KỸ THUẬT

Đậu tương

– Giá đậu tương đã điều chỉnh và sau đó tăng mạnh đến vùng kháng cự 1597 – 1613 như Góc nhìn kỹ thuật ngày 03.06.2021.

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– Sau khi chạm vùng kháng cự quan trọng cũng khung thời gian Ngày thì đậu tương đã phản ứng ngay lặp tức bằng nền rút chân.

– Hiện tại thì đậu tương vẫn có thể sẽ tiếp tục tăng trong kênh giá và tiếp cận sâu vào vùng kháng cự quan trọng 1618 – 1670 này một lần nữa, đặt biệt là vùng 1641 – 1670.

– Tuy nhiên, để tiếp tục đà tăng thì đậu tương hoàn toàn có thể điều chỉnh về vùng hỗ trợ 1580 – 1590 để lấp khoảng trống tạo ra vào đầu phiên và lấy đà cho sóng tăng tiếp theo.

Khô đậu tương

– Khô đậu tương đang trên đường quay trở lại kiểm tra vùng kháng cự 407 – 410 một lần nữa như dự đoán trong Góc nhìn kỹ thuật ngày 03.06.2021.

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– Tuy nhiên, khô đậu hiện tại đang có xu hướng muốn điều chỉnh về vùng hỗ trợ tiềm năng 388.50 – 394. Nếu khô đậu bật tăng khi chạm vùng hỗ trợ này thì xu hướng hồi phục tăng của khô đậu có thể sẽ được tiếp tục như hình trên.

– Còn nếu gãy vùng hỗ trợ trên thì khô đậu sẽ quay về kiểm tra vùng hỗ trợ cứng 378 – 387.

– Ngoài ra thì khô đậu cũng có thể không cẩn điều chỉnh về vùng hỗ trợ tiềm năng trên mà tiếp tục tăng chạm đến vùng kháng cự cứng phía trên.

Dầu đậu tương

– Sau khi hồi về kênh giá tăng vùng 69 thì dầu đậu đã bật tăng mạnh và tiếp tục phá đỉnh như đã đề cập trong Góc nhìn kỹ thuật ngày 03.06.2021.

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– Hiện tại thì dầu đậu lại tiếp tục tăng trong một kênh giá mới hình thành và phá vỡ hoàn đoàn vùng đỉnh lịch sử => Xu hướng tăng còn có thể lên đến vùng 74 – 75.

– Vùng tiềm năng cho vị thế mua là vùng hỗ trợ hợp lưu 70 – 71.50 của đỉnh cũ trước đó và kênh giá tăng nếu dầu đậu có thể điều chỉnh về.

– Nếu lực mua còn quá mạnh thì dầu đậu hoàn toàn có thể tăng đến vùng 74 – 75 mà không có sự điều chỉnh.

Lưu ý:

– Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.

– Luôn ưu tiên quản trị vốn để tối thiểu hóa rủi ro và từ đó có thể kiếm lợi nhuận một cách bền vững từ thị trường.

– Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.


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