Phân Tích Họ Đậu Tương Ngày 10/06/2021: Dự Kiến Biến Động Mạnh Do Báo Cáo WASDE

TIN TỨC

Nhóm họ đậu đồng loạt giảm điểm

– Giá đậu tương giảm mạnh nhất 1.11% xuống mức 1562.50 cents/giạ. Mực nước thấp trên sông Parana do hạn hán kéo dài tiếp tục gây cản trở tới hoạt động vận chuyển đậu tương tại Brazil. Tuy nhiên những thông tin ảnh hưởng của thời tiết ở nước này đã không còn mới và đã được phản ánh vào giá. Việc không có thêm thông tin cơ bản mới đã khiến giá đi theo các yếu tố kỹ thuật.

– Dầu đậu tương cũng giảm 0.68%, về mức 71.59 cent/pound. Giá dầu cọ giảm mạnh, trong khi dầu thô cũng đóng cửa thấp hơn phiên hôm trước là những yếu tố kéo giá dầu đậu tương đi xuống bên cạnh đà giảm chung của các mặt hàng cùng nhóm.

– Khô đậu tương giảm xuống mức 386.4 USD/tấn, thấp hơn 0.87% so với phiên trước đó, bất chấp những chuyến hàng vận chuyển nông sản ở Brazil và Argentina đang có nguy cơ bị chậm trễ.

Argentina: Mực nước tại cảng Rosario sẽ tiếp tục giảm trong thời gian tới

– Điều kiện thời tiết khô hạn kéo dài tại Brazil tiếp tục là mối quan tâm lớn đối với các công ty xuất khẩu tại cảng Rosario của Argentina. Mực nước tại đây đã liên tục giảm trong vài tháng qua và hiện tại đang ở mức quá thấp để tàu thuyền qua lại. Tình hình chắc chắn sẽ trở nên tối tệ hơn nữa do Brazil đang báo cáo vào mùa khô, từ nay cho tới tháng 9.

– Năm ngoái, khi tình huống tương tự xảy ra, chính phủ Brazil và Paraguay đã đồng ý xả nước tại đập thủy điện Itaipu để giúp cải thiện mực nước trên khu phức hợp sông Parana. Tuy nhiên, quyết định này đã trở nên khó khăn hơn đối với Brazil do mực nước tại các đập cũng đang ở mức thấp do chưa được bù đắp đầy đủ từ giai đoạn trước.

Dự đoán Wasde: Dự trữ đậu tương kết thúc năm 2021/22 của Mỹ dự kiến sẽ tăng

– USDA dự kiến sẽ giảm lượng dự trữ đậu tương cuối kỳ của Hoa Kỳ cho năm 2020/21 và tăng dự trữ cho năm tới, theo một cuộc thăm dò của Agricensus với 9 nhà phân tích.

– Các thay đổi sẽ được công bố tại báo cáo Wasde tháng 6 sẽ được công bố vào thứ Năm.

– Trong khi dự trữ cuối vụ cho năm hiện tại dự kiến sẽ giảm rất nhẹ 1 triệu giạ (ít hơn 30,000 tấn) so với ước tính được công bố vào tháng 5, xuống còn 119 triệu giạ (3.24 triệu tấn), các nhà phân tích tin rằng dự trữ cuối vụ mới sẽ được nâng cấp từ 140 triệu giạ (3.81 triệu tấn) trong tháng 5 lên 149 triệu giạ (4.06 triệu tấn).

– Đây là những con số trung bình, với ước tính cá nhân dao động trong khoảng 110 đến 125 triệu giạ (2.99-3.40 triệu tấn) đối với vụ cũ và từ 140 đến 193 triệu giạ (3.81-5.25 triệu tấn) đối với vụ mới.

– Kỳ vọng về dự trữ vụ mới cao hơn ở Mỹ được đưa ra bất chấp việc điều kiện phát triển cây trồng của nước này bị hạ thấp gần đây và dựa trên dự báo về sản lượng mạnh mẽ ở những nơi khác và xuất khẩu của Mỹ giảm.

– Điều đáng nhấn mạnh là mặc dù sự gia tăng dự kiến của các nguồn dự trữ cuối vụ mới vẫn sẽ khiến nó ở mức thấp trong lịch sử.

– Trong khi đó, các kho dự trữ cuối kỳ trên toàn cầu dự kiến sẽ vẫn ổn định ở mức ước tính trung bình là 86.8 triệu tấn và ước tính sản lượng của Brazil và Argentina không thay đổi so với mức của tháng 5 lần lượt là 136 và 47 triệu tấn, với sự khác biệt không đáng kể giữa các ước tính riêng lẻ.

Brazil: Mực nước trên sông Parana đang ở mức thấp nhất trong 22 năm

– Đã hơn một năm khu vực miền trung Brazil nhận được lượng mưa thất thường gây thiệt hại đáng kể đến sản lượng các loại cây trồng tại đây. Điều này cũng dẫn đến hậu quả là mực nước trên sông Parana giảm xuống mức thấp nhất trong 22 năm. Tình trạng thiếu độ ẩm tại miền trung Brazil đã bắt đầu kể từ cuối năm 2019, và tính đến cuối tháng 5 năm 2021, 60% lưu vực sông Parana được đánh giá là trong tình trạng hạn hán nghiêm trọng.

– Điều kiện thời tiết khô hạn kéo dài dự kiến sẽ không thể sớm được cải thiện, đặc biệt là khi miền trung Brazil đang bước vào mùa khô. Điều này đồng nghĩa với việc lượng mưa từ nay cho tới tháng 9 tại khu vực này sẽ chỉ ở mức thấp. Tuy phần lớn cây trồng tại Brazil đang báo cáo vào giai đoạn thu hoạch và sẽ không cần mưa trong thời gian tới, mực nước tại các hồ thủy điện sẽ tiếp tục giảm, làm gia tăng khả năng chính phủ sẽ có những biện pháp cắt giảm tiêu thụ điện.

Reuters: Dự đoán báo cáo Export Sales của USDA lúc 19:30 tối 10/06

– Dự đoán của hãng tin Thompson Reuters trước Báo cáo Xuất khẩu – Export Sales sẽ được USDA phát hành vào lúc 19:30 tối nay, 10/06/2021.

– Dự đoán này được tổng hợp trung bình của các tổ chức uy tín nhất trên thế giới, về số liệu bán hàng của các mặt hàng trong tuần từ 28/05/2021 đến 03/06/2021.

PHÂN TÍCH KỸ THUẬT

Đậu tương

– Giá đậu tương đã quay về lấp khoảng trống như đã cảnh báo trong Góc nhìn kỹ thuật ngày 07.06.2021. Tuy nhiên, sau khi lấp khoảng trống giá thì giá đậu tương đã tiếp tục giảm mạnh về vùng hỗ trợ cứng.

>>>Tham khảo phân tích ngày 07.06.2021<<<

– Xu hướng ngắn hạn hiện tại của đậu tương đang là giảm vì giá nằm dưới đường trendline giảm như hình trên.

– Sau khi tiếp cận vùng hỗ trợ cứng 1539 – 1558 thì đậu tương đang có xu hướng hồi phục nhẹ.

– Hiện tại thì giá đậu tương có thể sẽ quay trở lại vùng hỗ trợ cứng một lần nữa và thậm chí là phá vỡ giảm nếu báo cáo WASDE tối nay ra tin tức ảnh hưởng tiêu cực đến giá đậu tương.

– Còn nếu phá vỡ đường trendline thì đó là một tín hiệu cảnh báo cho xu hướng tăng có thể sẽ quay trở lại và nếu xu hướng tăng được duy trì thì giá đậu tương sẽ tìm về vùng kháng cự cứng 1600 – 1624 phía trên.

Khô đậu tương

– Sau khi gãy vùng hỗ trợ tiềm năng thì giá khô đậu đã chạm về vùng hỗ trợ cứng 378 – 387 như đã cảnh báo trong Góc nhìn kỹ thuật ngày 07.06.2021.

>>>Tham khảo phân tích ngày 07.06.2021<<<

– Khô đậu đang tích lũy trong biên độ rộng vùng 378 – 410.

– Hiện tại thì giá khô đậu đang nằm trong vùng hỗ trợ cứng 378 – 387 và không có nhiều biến động trong hôm nay. Nếu báo cáo WASDE tối nay tác động tiêu cực đến giá khô đậu thì khả năng rất cao là giá khô đậu sẽ phá vỡ vùng hỗ trợ cứng này và tiếp tục xu hướng giảm. Còn nếu tích cực thì khô đậu sẽ có xu hướng tăng trở lại đến vùng kháng cự cứng 404 – 410 phía trên nếu vượt được qua vùng kháng cự ngắn hạn 392 – 395.

Dầu đậu tương

– Dầu đậu sau khi điều chỉnh về vùng hỗ trợ hợp lưu 70 – 71.50 thì đã bật tăng khá mạnh như đã nhận định trong Góc nhìn kỹ thuật ngày 07.06.2021.

>>>Tham khảo phân tích ngày 07.06.2021<<<

– Hiện tại thì dầu đậu đang muốn phá vỡ mô hình là cờ tích lũy để tiếp tục xu hướng tăng.

– Nếu phá vỡ thành công và tiếp tục tăng thì dầu đậu sẽ có xu hướng quay về vùng đỉnh trước đó là vùng 73 – 73.75 và nếu phá vỡ vùng đỉnh này thì mốc tiếp theo sẽ là vùng 74 – 75 trong ngắn hạn.

– Còn nếu báo cáo WASDE tối nay tác động tiêu cực đến dầu đậu thì giá hoàn toàn có thể giảm mạnh về vùng hỗ trợ tiềm năng 68.70 – 69.60 bên dưới.

Lưu ý:

– Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.

– Luôn ưu tiên quản trị vốn để tối thiểu hóa rủi ro và từ đó có thể kiếm lợi nhuận một cách bền vững từ thị trường.

– Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.


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    Fakat müşteri memnuniyetinden yaşam enerjisi alan Takipcintr sitesi bu riski göze alarak sizlere güven teminatı sağlıyor.
    Günümüzde çok az kurumun sunduğu takipçi alma hizmeti,
    tüketicilere güven garantisi veriyor. Ayrıca bu
    hizmeti sunan kurumun azlığı da hizmetin değerini artırıyor.

    instagram Takipçi satın Al hizmetlerinden hemen faydalanarak şirketinizi büytüün.

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