Phân Tích Họ Đậu Tương Ngày 17/06/2021: Giá Có Tiếp Tục Giảm

Tin tức

Dollar Index cao nhất trong 2 tháng gần đây

Phố Wall đồng loạt giảm điểm sau khi FED tăng kỳ vọng lạm phát trong năm 2021 và đẩy nhanh thời điểm tăng lãi suất dự kiến. Dollar Index tăng 0.65% lên 91.13, mức cao nhất trong vòng 2 tháng khi FED thông báo tăng lãi suất sớm hơn dự kiến.

Kết thúc phiên giao dịch, Dow Jones giảm 0.77% xuống 265.66, S&P500 giảm 0.54% xuống 4223.7, Nasdaq giảm 0.24% xuống 14039.68. Điều này chắc chắn sẽ ảnh hưởng đến giá cả của các mặt hàng hàng hoá.

Đậu tương tiếp tục giảm 1.18% xuống 1448.50 cent/giạ.

Từ áp lực phía nông dân trồng đậu tương, người thường có xu hướng dừng xuất khẩu để phản đối các chính sách vô lý từ nhà nước. Argentia có khả năng bỏ lệnh cấm xuất khẩu thịt bò giúp giảm bớt lo ngại về nguồn cung các sản phẩm đậu tương từ nông dân nước này.

Dầu đậu tương giảm rất mạnh 5.34% về mức 62.07 cent/pound. 

Bên cạnh sức ép từ chính sách giảm nghĩa vụ pha trộn nhiên liệu sinh học cho các nhà máy lọc dầu, đà giảm mạnh của dầu cọ cũng tác động bearish lên giá dầu đậu tương. Giá dầu cọ Malaysia giảm gần 4%, khi Ấn Độ thông báo sẽ không giảm thuế nhâp khẩu, khiến cho nhu cầu của nước này giảm xuống.

Paraguay: Mực nước thấp trên sông Parana gây cản trở hoạt động xuất khẩu đậu tương

Một nguồn tin thị trường cho biết, điều kiện thời tiết khô hạn tại Argentina và Paraguay có thể sẽ khiến mực nước trên sông Parana tiếp tục giảm trong những tuần tới. Điều này trước đó đã ảnh hưởng tới hoạt động vận chuyển ngũ cốc tại Argentina, khi mực nước gần cảng Rosario chỉ đạt khoảng 0.60 mét, thấp hơn nhiều so với mức trung bình 3.5 mét. Dựa vào các dự báo thời tiết, mực nước tại đây sẽ còn tiếp tục giảm về chỉ còn 0.50 mét vào ngày 23 tháng 6 tới.

Mực nước thấp đã ảnh hưởng tới việc vận chuyển đậu tương tại Paraguay khi 125,000 tấn đậu tương và hơn 60 sà lan đang bị mắc kẹt tại các cảng. Người đứng đầu trung tâm hàng hải của Paraguay tuyên bố rằng, các chuyến hàng đậu tương tiếp theo được vận chuyển qua sông Parana sẽ chỉ diễn ra trong tháng 9.

Brazil: Bán hàng đậu tương 20/21 vẫn đang chậm hơn so với năm ngoái

Theo Datagro, trong cùng giai đoạn này, nông dân Brazil đã bán được 76.3% sản lượng đậu tương dự kiến trong vụ 2020/21, chậm hơn so với mức 87.5% của năm ngoái, nhưng nhanh hơn mức trung bình 5 năm là 73.4%. Đối với đậu tương niên vụ 2021/22, tiến độ bán hàng hiện đã đạt 17.4% sản lượng dự kiến, thấp hơn so với mức 33.1% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Sản lượng đậu tương niên vụ 2021/22 của Brazil được Datagro dự báo ở mức 141 triệu tấn, cao hơn 2.9% so với niên vụ 2020/21.

Brazil: ANEC tăng dự báo xuất khẩu đậu tương trong tháng 6 lên mức 11.5 triệu tấn

Tổ chức xuất khẩu ngũ cốc Brazil – ANEC vừa tăng dự báo xuất khẩu đậu tương trong tháng 6 của nước này lên mức 11.5 triệu tấn, từ 11 triệu tấn trong báo cáo trước, nhưng vẫn thấp hơn so với mức 11.9 triệu tấn trong cùng kỳ năm ngoái.

Trong khi đó, ANEC dự báo xuất khẩu khô đậu tương trong tháng 6 của Brazil ở mức 2.13 triệu tấn, cao hơn so với mức 1.96 triệu tấn trong báo cáo trước và tăng mạnh so với mức 1.39 triệu tấn so với cùng kỳ năm trước.

Đối với ngô, số liệu từ ANEC cho thấy sẽ không có đơn hàng xuất khẩu nào trong tháng 6 này.

Nếu các số liệu trên được xác nhận, xuất khẩu đậu tương trong nửa đầu năm nay sẽ đạt mức 61.8 triệu tấn, so với mức 82.3 triệu tấn trong cả năm ngoái.

Phân tích kĩ thuật

Mặt hàng dầu đậu tương

Đồ thị 1W – Dầu đậu tương tháng 8

Cây nến tuần ngày 7/6 chúng ta đã thấy áp lực giảm rất mạnh của thị trường dầu đậu tương với khối lượng giao dịch rất lớn.

Đây là tín hiệu đảo chiều rất mạnh và điều này góp phần khẳng định trường dầu đậu tương sẽ đảo chiều mạnh tại vùng giá này.

Nhìn cây nến tuần hiện tại chúng ta còn 2 ngày giao dịch nữa là đóng nến tuần và với cây nến tuần hiện tại như này ta có thể thấy dầu đậu tương sẽ quay trở về test lại mốc hỗ trợ theo khung tuần đầu tiên của thị trường tại vùng giá 55.66$ theo trung hạn. Chúng ta cũng sẽ có 1 trendline ủng hộ xu hướng tăng tại vùng giá đó và kì vọng những nhịp hồi phục khi giá quy hồi về vùng 55.66$

Điều này có thể xảy ra trong vài tuần tới.

Mặt hàng đậu tương

Đồ thị khung 1W – Đậu tương tháng 8

Cũng như dầu đậu tương, đậu tương cây nến tuần ngày 7/6 cũng cho tín hiệu đảo chiều rất mạnh theo khung tuần và không ngoại trừ khả năng nến tuần này cũng sẽ đóng nến giảm rất mạnh.

Thị trường sẽ có xu hướng về test lại vùng hỗ trợ cứng tại 1359$ và sẽ tích luỹ lại tại vùng đó trong vài tuần để hồi phục. Nếu đây là dấu hiệu cho thấy thị trường kết thúc giai đoạn uptrend siêu chu kỳ hàng hoá lần này , chúng ta sẽ coi sóng điều chỉnh từ 1596$ về lại 1359$ là sóng A điều chỉnh toàn phần của thị trường. Từ vùng 1359$ hồi phục thị trường sẽ chạy Sóng B và sóng C cuối sẽ là nhịp giảm rất mạnh và dự đoán kết thúc chu kì này sẽ là vùng 1250$.

Lưu ý

– Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.

– Luôn ưu tiên quản trị vốn để tối thiểu hóa rủi ro và từ đó có thể kiếm lợi nhuận một cách bền vững từ thị trường.

– Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.


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