Phân Tích Mã Cà Phê Ngày 02/06/2021: Liệu Cà Phê Đã Tạo Đỉnh Hay Chưa?

Giá cà phê Robusta phiên hôm qua tăng lên mức cao nhất trong vòng hơn 2 năm trở lại đây.

Giá cà phê vẫn được hỗ trợ tốt bởi các Quỹ mua vào do lo ngại mùa vụ cà phê của Brazil. Báo cáo của Somar Metrorologia cho thấy lượng mưa ở Minas Gerais, vùng trồng Arabica lớn nhất Brazil là 6,7mm vào tuần trước, chỉ bằng 38% so với mức trung bình lịch sử.

Thứ 6 tuần trước, hệ thống thời tiết quốc gia (NWS) đã ban hành cảnh báo khẩn cấp về việc thiếu nước cho các bang Minas Gerais, Goias, Mato Grasso do Sul, Sao Paulo và Parana của Brazil. NWS cho biết tình trạng thiếu hụt lượng mưa ở Brazil là nghiêm trọng và dự báo thời tiết sắp tới cho thấy phần lớn khu vực ở miền Trung Brazil sẽ ít có mưa từ tháng 6 đến tháng 8.

Arabica giảm trở lại sau khi đạt mức cao nhất trong hơn 4 năm trở lại đây sau khi chủ tịch Fedecafe của tập đoàn café Columbia cho biết khoảng 500 xe tải chở cà phê đã đến trung tâm vận chuyển chính của Columbia tại Buenaventura. Hiệp hội những người trồng café Columbia cho biết các công ty vận tải biển đã đình chỉ việc đặt hàng cho các chuyến hàng cà phê do các cuộc biểu tình và phong tỏa đường đến các cảng đang làm gián đoạn việc xuất khẩu cà phê. Kể từ khi các cuộc biểu tình nổ ra từ ngày 28/4, khoảng 600.000 bao cà phê đã bị trì hoãn. Các cuộc biểu tình nhằm phản đối dự luật cải cách thuế mới của Chính phủ Columbia được công bố vào tháng trước. Columbia là nước trồng Arabica lớn thứ 2 thế giới.

Marex Solutions hôm thứ 3 tuần trước cho biết các hạt café thu hoạch được cho năng suất thấp hơn nhiều so với bình thường. Marex cũng cho biết độ ẩm của đất thấp cũng có thể kìm hãm sự phát triển của niên vụ cà phê Brazil 2022-2023.

Conab hôm thứ 3 tuần trước dự báo sản lượng cà phê của Brazil trong năm 2021 sẽ giảm -23% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, xuống mức thấp nhất trong 4 năm là 48,8 triệu bao. Conab cho biết sản lượng cà phê giảm do cây cà phê của Brazil đang ở trong giai đoạn năng suất thấp trong chu kỳ 2 năm một lần và do lượng mưa không đủ vào giai đoạn phát triển chính của cây trồng làm sự sụt giảm thêm nghiêm trọng.

Giá cà phê được hỗ trợ vào ngày 20/5 sau khi Safras cắt giảm ước tính sản lượng cà phê niên vụ 2021-2022 của Brazil xuống còn 56,5 triệu bao so với ước tính trước đó là 57,1 triệu bao. Ngoài ra, Hiệp hội Cà phê xanh (GCA) đã ra báo cáo thứ 2 tuần trước tồn kho cà phê nhân tháng 4 của Mỹ giảm -11,6% xuống còn -562567 bao.

Tổ chức cà phê Quốc tế (ICO) vào ngày 6/5 đã cắt giảm sản lượng cà phê toàn cầu niên vụ 2021-2022 xuống còn 169,633 triệu bao so với ước tính trước đó là 171,896 triệu bao và cắt giảm ước tính thặng dư cà phê toàn cầu xuống còn 3,286 triệu bao so với dự báo trước đó là 5,258 triệu bao.

Giá cà phê còn được hỗ trợ tăng do nhu cầu tiêu thụ tăng khi tốc độ tiêm chủng vaccine Covid-19 nhanh hơn, cho phép nhiều nhà hàng, quán café được phép mở trở lại trên khắp thế giới.

Giá cà phê Robusta được hỗ trợ tăng do nguồn cung giảm từ Việt Nam sau khi Tổng cục thống kê Việt Nam báo cáo hôm chủ nhật rằng xuất khẩu cà phê của Việt Nam từ tháng 1 đến tháng 5 giảm -11,4% xuống 720.000 tấn.

Trong thời gian tới, yếu tố có thể tác động tiêu cực đến giá cà phê là việc nguồn cung dồi dào do tòn kho cà phê ICE đang có xu hướng cao hơn trong 7 tháng qua. Tồn kho cà phê Arabica của ICE hôm thứ 6 tuần trước đã tăng lên mức cao nhất trong 14 tháng là 2,076 triệu bao, tiếp tục phục hồi từ mức thấp nhất trong 21 năm qua là 1,096 triệu bao theo số liệu được công bố ngày 5/10. Tồn kho cà phê Robusta của ICE vào ngày 20/5 đã tăng lên mức cao nhất trong 4 năm là 16.017 lô, phục hồi từ mức thấp nhấttrong 2 năm là 10.808 lô theo số liệu công bố ngày 14/10. Bên cạnh đó, ICO cũng báo cáo ngày 11/5 rằng xuất khẩu cà phê toàn cầu tháng 10 tăng 3,5% so với cùng kỳ, đạt 65,4 triệu bao.

Phân tích kỹ thuật

1. Mặt Hàng Cà Phê Arabica

Trên đồ thị W, giá bứt phá tăng mạnh sau khi phá vỡ kháng cự vùng 140. Hiện tại giá Arabica đã áp sát vùng kháng cự tiếp theo là 170-180, trùng với vùng fibo 161.8% của đợt sóng tăng này.

Trên đồ thị D đã xuất hiện dấu hiệu điều chỉnh với nến Pinbar ở vùng kháng cự. Do đó rất có thể Arabica sẽ chịu áp lực điều chỉnh trong 1-2 tuần tới trước khi tiếp tục xu hướng tăng

Chiến lược đầu tư dài hạn vẫn ưu tiên chờ mua nếu giá điều chỉnh về các vùng hỗ trợ bên dưới là 140 và 150

Tín hiệu đầu tư lướt sóng sẽ được cập nhật trên kênh Telegram.

2. Mặt hàng Cà phê Robusta

Trên đồ thị W, giá phá vỡ trendline giảm và tăng mạnh, vượt vùng kháng cự 1500. Xu hướng khả năng tiếp tục tăng lên vùng 1800 hoặc cao hơn là vùng 2000.

Chiến lược đầu tư dài hạn là canh mua nếu giá điều chỉnh quanh vùng 1500.

Trên đồ thị D, giá sau khi phá vỡ kháng cự 1550 đã tiếp tục tăng mạnh lên trên 1600.

Hiện tại vẫn ưu tiên canh mua nếu giá điều chỉnh về vùng 1550-1560, stp 1450.

Tín hiệu đầu tư lướt sóng sẽ được cập nhật trên kênh Telegram.

Lưu ý:

  • Mọi thông tin trên chỉ mang tính chất tham khảo, Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên xem xét kỹ lưỡng để đưa ra quyết định đầu tư cho riêng mình.
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  • Quý Nhà Đầu tư nên tìm kiếm một đội tư vấn, phân tích, chăm sóc khách hàng chuyên nghiệp để từ đó có thể kiếm được lợi nhuận từ thị trường. Đừng ngừng ngại liên hệ cho chúng tôi – Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi qua thông tin bên dưới.

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