Liệu giá hàng hóa có bước vào một giai đoạn tăng trưởng dài hạn hay không khi thị trường hàng hóa được đánh giá là đang bùng nổ mạnh mẽ? Giờ đây cùng điểm qua các cột mốc của thị trường hàng hóa trong thập niên 2000.
Sau cuộc đại suy thoái hàng hóa trong những năm 1980 và 1990, đầu thế kỷ 21 (2000-2014) xuất hiện sự bùng nổ hàng hóa hay nói văn chương hơn là siêu chu kỳ hàng hóa. Siêu chu kỳ hàng hóa là sự gia tăng giá của nhiều hàng hoá vật chất (như thực phẩm, dầu mỏ, kim loại, hóa chất, nhiên liệu và những thứ tương tự). Nguyên nhân xuất hiện sự bùng nổ chủ yếu đến từ gia tăng nhu cầu từ các thị trường mới nổi như các nước BRIC, đặc biệt là Trung Quốc trong giai đoạn từ năm 1992 đến năm 2013, cũng như kết quả của những lo ngại về khả năng cung ứng trong dài hạn. Giá đã giảm mạnh trong suốt năm 2008 và đầu năm 2009 do kết quả của cuộc khủng hoảng tín dụng và nợ chính phủ, nhưng giá bắt đầu tăng khi nhu cầu phục hồi từ cuối năm 2009 đến giữa năm 2010.

Liệu quá trình có được lặp lại?
Dầu bắt đầu giảm xuống sau giữa năm 2010, nhưng đạt đỉnh 101,80 USD vào ngày 30 và 31 tháng 1 năm 2011, khi cuộc cách mạng Ai Cập năm 2011 nổ ra, dẫn đến những lo ngại về cả việc sử dụng an toàn Kênh đào Suez và an ninh nói chung ở chính Ả Rập . Ngày 3/3, Tập đoàn Dầu khí Quốc gia Libya cho biết sản lượng đã giảm một nửa do lao động nước ngoài rời đi. Khi điều này xảy ra, dầu thô Brent đã tăng lên mức cao mới trên 116,00 USD/thùng do nguồn cung bị gián đoạn và khả năng xảy ra nhiều bất ổn hơn ở Trung Đông và Bắc Phi tiếp tục khiến các nhà đầu tư lo lắng. Do đó, giá dầu tiếp tục tăng trong những năm 2010.
Các mặt hàng siêu tăng giá đạt đỉnh vào năm 2011, được thúc đẩy bởi sự kết hợp của nhu cầu mạnh mẽ từ các quốc gia mới nổi và tăng trưởng nguồn cung thấp. Trước năm 2002, chỉ 5 đến 10% giao dịch trên thị trường hàng hóa là do các nhà đầu tư. Kể từ năm 2002, “30% giao dịch là do các nhà đầu tư trên thị trường hàng hóa”, điều này “đã gây ra biến động giá cao hơn”.
Sự bùng nổ hàng hóa những năm 2000 có thể so sánh với những siêu xe chở hàng đi kèm với sự mở rộng kinh tế sau Thế chiến II và cuộc Cách mạng Công nghiệp lần thứ hai vào nửa sau của thế kỷ 19 và đầu thế kỷ 20.
Bối cảnh của thị trường thời gian trước đó
Giá nguyên liệu bị suy giảm từ khoảng năm 1982 đến năm 1998. Từ giữa những năm 1980 đến tháng năm 2003, điều chỉnh lạm phát giá của một thùng của dầu thô trên sàn NYMEX nói chung là dưới $25/thùng.
Kể từ năm 1968, giá vàng dao động rộng rãi, từ mức cao $850/oz ($27.300/kg) vào ngày 21 tháng 1 năm 1980, xuống mức thấp $252,90/oz ($8.131/kg) vào ngày 21 tháng 6 năm 1999 (London Gold Fixing). Phân tích thời kỳ này dựa trên công trình của Robert Solow và bắt nguồn từ các lý thuyết kinh tế vĩ mô về thương mại bao gồm mô hình Mundell – Fleming.
Một ý kiến cho rằng: “Sự biến động và lãi suất đã ảnh hưởng đến đầu vào của hàng hóa và tất cả các lĩnh vực của nền kinh tế thế giới.” Do đó, trong trường hợp khủng hoảng kinh tế, giá cả hàng hóa tuân theo xu hướng tỷ giá hối đoái (đi đôi với nhau) và giá của nó giảm trong trường hợp cung tiền giảm đi có xu hướng giảm.Tỷ giá hối đoái tác động đến giá cả hàng hóa và nguồn cung tiền cũng vậy: sự xuất hiện của khủng hoảng sẽ kéo giá hàng hóa xuống.
>>>>>>>>>>Triển vọng phát triển của thị trường hàng hóa<<<<<<<<<<
Nông sản bùng nổ
Cả dân số toàn cầu tăng và sản lượng cây lương thực giảm mạnh cùng với sự gia tăng mạnh của cây nhiên liệu sinh học đã giúp giá dự trữ lương thực cơ bản tăng mạnh. Ethiopia cũng từng chứng kiến một đợt hạn hán đe dọa những vùng đất nông nghiệp vốn đã yếu ớt của họ vào năm 2007. Ca cao cũng bị ảnh hưởng bởi một vụ mùa tồi tệ vào năm 2008, do dịch bệnh và mưa lớn bất thường ở các vùng của Tây Phi.
Nhu cầu gia tăng ở cả Ấn Độ và Ai Cập đã giúp tăng nhu cầu đối với lúa mì Mỹ trong thời kỳ thị trường tăng giá trong tháng 8 năm 2007. Lúa mì chiết khấu được bán với giá khoảng £11– £15/tấn. Tháng 8 năm 2007, với lúa mì không chiết khấu với giá cao hơn một chút. Thị trường kỳ hạn lúa mì tháng 11 năm 2007 được giao dịch ở mức gần £165/tấn, với các hợp đồng tháng 11 năm 2008 là £128,50. Thị trường trở nên khá giảm giá do giá không kỳ hạn đóng băng và đình trệ vào tháng 12 năm 2007. Giá lúa mì đạt mức cao kỷ lục sau khi Kazakhstan bắt đầu hạn chế nguồn cung bán ra nước ngoài vào đầu năm 2008, nhưng đã chậm lại vào cuối năm 2008…
Bạo loạn thực phẩm tấn công Ai Cập vào ngày 12 tháng 4 năm 2008, khi giá bánh mì quốc gia tăng nhanh chóng trong tháng 3 và tháng 4 năm 2008.
Vào cuối tháng 4 năm 2008, giá gạo đạt 24 cent (Mỹ)/pound Mỹ, tăng hơn gấp đôi giá chỉ trong vòng bảy tháng. Giá lúa mì đã tăng từ mức vốn đã cao 88 bảng Anh/tấn lên 91 bảng Anh từ tháng 1 đến tháng 3 năm 2010, do thị trường tăng giá và lo ngại về tiền tệ. Điều này dẫn đến bạo loạn lương thực ở những nơi như Haiti, Indonesia, Côte d’Ivoire, Uzbekistan, Ai Cập và Ethiopia.
Vào ngày 31 tháng 7, các nhà kinh tế hàng đầu dự đoán rằng giá lương thực, đặc biệt là lúa mì sẽ tăng ở Chad khi Nga kết thúc xuất khẩu do hạn hán trong nước phá hủy thu hoạch lúa mì và lúa mạch của họ. Đến ngày 3 tháng 8, giá lúa mì đứng ở mức 7,11 USD/giạ do lệnh cấm xuất khẩu của Nga.

Hậu quả
Vào giữa những năm 2010, Trung Quốc đã trải qua sự sụp đổ của thị trường chứng khoán và suy thoái kinh tế khi nước này chuyển từ sản xuất sang ngành dịch vụ. Chính phủ ở châu Mỹ Latinh đã tạo ra chính sách không bền vững dựa trên thương mại hàng hóa của Trung Quốc trong những năm 2000 bắt đầu trải qua giai đoạn kinh tế khó khăn sự suy giảm chính trị cũng như thu nhập giảm sút do sự kết thúc của siêu chu kỳ hàng hóa.
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