Tại Sao Dầu Tiếp Tục Tăng Ngay Cả Khi Các Hàng Hóa Khác Giảm Trở Lại?

Giá các mặt hàng như thép và ngô đã giảm trở lại từ mức cao mà chúng đạt được vào tháng trước, nhưng Dầu tiếp tục tăng , được thúc đẩy bởi các dấu hiệu gia tăng đi lại trên khắp thế giới và áp lực mới đối với nguồn cung.

Giá dầu thô Brent tăng lên 70,56 USD/thùng (0,4%).

Gia dầu WTI tăng lên 67,94 USD/thùng (0,3%).

– Dầu tăng vì một số lý do tương tự như các mặt hàng khác – tốc độ mở cửa trở lại và sự thiếu hụt nguồn cung ở một số khu vực.

– Các yếu tố khác cũng có thể kéo dài đà tăng của dầu ngay cả khi giá một số mặt hàng khác đã bắt đầu giảm. Trong một ghi chú được công bố hôm thứ Tư rằng các động lực chính trị có khả năng hạn chế sự tăng trưởng nguồn cung dầu ngay cả khi nhu cầu tiếp tục tăng trong những năm tới.

Tuy nhiên, nhu cầu có thể không giảm nhiều như cung – mặc dù có một cuộc tranh luận gay gắt đang diễn ra về việc liệu nhu cầu đã đạt đỉnh hay có thể tiếp tục tăng trong ít nhất một thập kỷ nữa.

Chiến lược gia dầu mỏ của Morgan Stanley, Martjin Rats, dự kiến nhu cầu sẽ tiếp tục tăng lên 107 triệu thùng / ngày vào năm 2033, từ 100 triệu thùng vào đầu năm 2020. Để đáp ứng nhu cầu ngày càng tăng đó, Rats dự kiến các công ty dầu khí quốc doanh và tư nhân sẽ phải tăng tăng sản lượng, và giá dầu sẽ cần phải tăng để tài trợ cho việc mở rộng đó. Hiện tại, các công ty đại chúng chiếm khoảng một nửa nguồn cung dầu. Giá thậm chí có thể phải tăng lên 80 đô la / thùng để khiến các công ty tư nhân và công ty thuộc sở hữu nhà nước bù đắp khoảng cách. Rats dự đoán mục tiêu giá dầu Brent dài hạn của mình ổn định ở 50 USD lên 60 USD.

Đánh giá:

– Dầu vẫn còn động lực tăng giá cho đến tháng 7 năm nay, khi các nước Opec + vẫn đang thắt chặt nguồn cung cho đến tháng 7. Hạn chế về nguồn cung cũng như tốc độ mở cửa lại nền kinh tế và nhu cầu đi lại đang trở lại khiến nhu cầu tăng cao hơn.

– Giá Dầu có thể giảm nếu như các nước Âu, Mỹ vẫn chưa hoàn khống chế được dịch bệnh và Mỹ cùng Iran có một thoả thuận trong thời gian ngắn. Iran có thể trở lại với nguồn cung dự kiến 2.5 triệu thùng/ ngày. Là những yếu tố có thể gây giá Dầu giảm trong ngắn hạn.


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