Triển Vọng Phát Triển Của Thị Trường Hàng Hóa

Hầu hết giá cả hàng hóa đều cao hơn trước đại dịch 

Gần như tất cả giá cả hàng hóa đều tăng trong quý đầu tiên của năm, và hầu hết hiện đang ở trên mức trước đại dịch.  Mức tăng này được thúc đẩy bởi sự phục hồi trong hoạt động kinh tế toàn cầu, cũng như một số yếu tố cung cấp cụ thể, đặc biệt là đối với dầu, đồng và một số mặt hàng thực phẩm.

Giá dầu thô phục hồi trong thời gian kỷ lục

Giá dầu thô đã trải qua một đợt phục hồi nhanh kỷ lục từ mức thấp đạt được trong thời kỳ đại dịch, được hỗ trợ bởi việc tiếp tục cắt giảm sản lượng của Tổ chức Các nước Xuất khẩu Dầu mỏ (OPEC) và các đối tác của tổ chức này. Nhu cầu cũng đã dần dần phục hồi và điều này dự kiến sẽ ổn định vào năm 2021 khi vắc xin trở nên phổ biến rộng rãi và các hạn chế đi lại bắt đầu không bị ràng buộc, đặc biệt là ở các nền kinh tế tiên tiến.

Năng lực sản xuất dầu dự phòng là rất lớn

Trong khi việc cắt giảm sản lượng của OPEC và các đối tác (OPEC +) đóng vai trò quan trọng trong việc hỗ trợ giá dầu, thì lượng lớn năng lực sản xuất dự phòng sẽ hạn chế việc tăng giá trong thời gian dự báo. Ngoài ra, nếu việc ngăn chặn đại dịch bị đình trệ, nhu cầu suy yếu hơn nữa có thể gây áp lực lên thỏa thuận cắt giảm sản lượng. Việc phá bỏ thỏa thuận có thể khiến giá dầu giảm rõ rệt.

Giá khí đốt tự nhiên và than đá cũng tăng

Trong số các mặt hàng năng lượng khác, khí đốt tự nhiên và than đá cũng tăng giá mạnh trong Quý 1 năm 2021, do kinh tế toàn cầu phục hồi, thời tiết lạnh giá ở các khu vực ở Bắc bán cầu và gián đoạn nguồn cung. Giá than phải đối mặt với áp lực dài hạn từ xu hướng khử cacbon khi ngày càng nhiều quốc gia nhập khẩu than công bố mục tiêu trung hòa cacbon. Việc sử dụng than đã bị hạn chế đáng kể do sự thâm nhập nhanh chóng của năng lượng tái tạo và khí đốt tự nhiên giá rẻ, mặc dù việc ngừng sản xuất điện chạy bằng than ở châu Âu và Mỹ đã được bù đắp nhiều hơn nhờ công suất tăng ở Trung Quốc.

Biểu đồ năng lực sản xuất toàn cầu

Sự phục hồi toàn cầu thúc đẩy giá kim loại

Giá kim loại tiếp tục xu hướng tăng trong quý đầu tiên của năm 2021 và đã vượt qua mức trước đại dịch. Giá tăng phản ánh nhu cầu mạnh mẽ ở Trung Quốc, sự phục hồi toàn cầu đang diễn ra và sự gián đoạn nguồn cung đối với một số kim loại. Giá quặng đồng, thiếc và sắt đạt mức cao nhất trong 10 năm vào tháng 3. Dự luật cơ sở hạ tầng được đề xuất ở Hoa Kỳ và quá trình chuyển đổi năng lượng toàn cầu theo hướng khử cacbon có thể tạo thêm áp lực tăng giá.

Giá đồng và PMI xuất khẩu toàn cầu

Lợi tức trái phiếu tăng đã lấy đi ánh sáng của vàng

Giá vàng giảm 4% trong Quý 1 năm 2021, do nhu cầu đầu tư giảm do lợi suất trái phiếu chính phủ Mỹ tăng. Lợi suất của Chứng khoán được Bảo vệ Lạm phát Kho bạc kỳ hạn 10 năm đã tăng từ -1% trong tháng 1 lên -0,66% vào tháng 3 – mức cao nhất kể từ tháng 6 năm 2020. Lợi suất tăng khiến vàng kém hấp dẫn hơn đối với các nhà đầu tư. Các quỹ giao dịch trao đổi được hỗ trợ bằng vàng cũng đã giảm mạnh trong những tháng gần đây và các ngân hàng trung ương đã giảm mua vàng.

Giá vàng và lãi suất

Giá nông sản đạt mức cao nhất trong 7 năm

Chỉ số giá nông sản của Ngân hàng Thế giới tăng hơn 9% trong Quý 1 năm 2021 (q / q), dựa trên đà tăng của quý trước. Giá cao hơn 20 phần trăm so với một năm trước, mức cao gần bảy năm. Việc tăng giá được thúc đẩy bởi sự thiếu hụt nguồn cung đối với một số mặt hàng lương thực, đặc biệt là ngô và đậu tương, nhu cầu mạnh đối với các mặt hàng thức ăn chăn nuôi của Trung Quốc và sự mất giá của đồng đô la Mỹ.

Chỉ số hàng hóa

Thị trường hàng hóa thực phẩm ổn định

Dựa trên khảo sát về ý định trồng của Bộ Nông nghiệp Hoa Kỳ, đất được giao cho ngô, đậu tương và lúa mì ở Hoa Kỳ dự kiến sẽ tăng lần lượt 0,4%, 5,4 và 4,5% trong mùa tới. Điều này theo sau sự tăng trưởng nguồn cung dưới xu hướng dài hạn trong vài vụ mùa vừa qua. Với vai trò quá lớn của Mỹ đối với các mặt hàng này, nếu đánh giá này thành hiện thực thì nó sẽ giúp ổn định thị trường hàng hóa thực phẩm toàn cầu. Giá nông sản dự kiến sẽ ổn định vào năm 2022 sau khi tăng 13% trong năm nay. Rủi ro đối với các dự báo xuất phát từ đường dẫn của chi phí năng lượng, trong ngắn hạn và các chính sách nhiên liệu sinh học để ứng phó với quá trình chuyển đổi năng lượng trong dài hạn.

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    When I look at your website in Firefox, it looks fine but when opening
    in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping.
    I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, excellent blog!