Yếu Tố Ảnh Hưởng Đến Giá Cà Phê Robusta?

Cà phê Robusta thuộc Sở giao dịch Hàng hóa ICE EU là sản phẩm mới vừa được quyết định bổ sung vào danh mục hàng hóa giao dịch liên thông tại Sở giao dịch Hàng hóa Việt Nam vào ngày 04/05/2021. Giá cà phê Robusta được đánh giá sẽ nhiều biến động khi gia nhập thị trường và ảnh hưởng bởi nhiều yếu tố.

Giá cà phê Robusta bị ảnh hưởng bởi 6 yếu tố chính 

1. Giá cà phê Robusta bị ảnh hưởng bởi cung và cầu cà phê

Hiện tại tổng nguồn cung cà phê của thế giới khoảng 165 triệu bao. Trong khi tổng cầu cà phê của thế giới khoảng 168 triệu bao, dư cầu khoảng 3 triệu bao.

Theo số liệu thống kê từ USDA, nhu cầu tiêu thụ cà phê tăng khoảng 2,5%/năm. Nguồn cung cà phê bị phụ thuộc nhiều vào mùa vụ và điều kiện của các nước trồng cà phê nhiều trên thế giới. Khi nguồn cung nhỏ hơn hơn cầu, cán cân cung cầu sẽ lệch và khi đó giá sẽ tăng.

Một dẫn chứng cụ thể là vào năm 1995 giá cà phê thế giới đột biến tăng lên 2.400$/tấn, giá cà phê Việt Nam lúc này tăng cực điểm là 42.000 đ/kg vì sản lượng cà phê của Brazil bị sụt giảm do những tác động của thời tiết và diện tích nuôi trồng.

2. Nhu cầu cà phê tác động đến giá cà phê

Nhu cầu cà phê thế giới đang ngày càng tăng trưởng theo tốc độ gia tăng dân số và sự thay đổi khẩu vị của người dân.

Ly cà phê từ 100% Robusta có vị đắng, sánh đậm và caffein cao. Nhưng thực tế một số người không thích vị đắng của cà phê mà thay vào đó là những hương vị từ Arabica. Arabica mang lại hương thơm (với những hương hấp dẫn như hương hoa, hương trái cây, chocolate), độ chua dịu nhẹ và lượng caffeine thấp hơn, đủ để có thể dùng từ 2 – 3 ly một ngày cho mỗi người. Arabica có hàm lượng acidity nhiều hơn hẳn so với Robusta.

Vị giác người châu Âu thích cà phê Robusta trong khi người Mỹ có xu hướng uống hỗn hợp Arabica.

Chính vì nhu cầu cà phê khác nhau giữa các khu vực nên dẫn đến giá cà phê ở các quốc gia cũng không giống nhau, cụ thể là ở châu Âu thì giá cà phê Robusta có giá cao hơn còn ở Mỹ thì do chuộng Arabica hơn nên giá loại cà phê này ở Mỹ sẽ cao hơn ở những nơi khác.

3. Dịch bệnh và thời tiết ảnh hưởng lớn đến quá trình sản xuất giá cà phê

Cà phê vối ưa sống ở vùng nhiệt đới, độ cao thích hợp để trồng cây là dưới 1000 m. Nhiệt độ ưa thích của cây khoảng 24-29°C, lượng mưa khoảng trên 1.000 mm. Cây cà phê vối cần nhiều ánh sáng mặt trời hơn so với cây cà phê chè. Nếu điều kiện thời tiết không phù hợp: quá lạnh hoặc quá nóng, hạn hán hoặc lũ lụt,… sẽ khiến cho việc thu hoạch và chế biến Robusta bị trì hoãn, tạo ra sự thiếu hụt nguồn cung.

Cây cà phê bị nhiễm bệnh

Ngoài yếu tố thời tiết, bệnh dịch cũng là một yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến sản lượng cà phê toàn cầu. Bệnh gỉ sắt là một căn bệnh tàn phá có thể phá hoại mùa màng. Cà phê Robusta có khả năng chống gỉ sắt cao hơn so với cà phê Arabica.

Tóm lại, sản lượng Robusta phụ thuộc rất lớn vào điều kiện tự nhiên như thời tiết và dịch bệnh. Khi tình hình thời tiết xấu hoặc bệnh dịch diễn ra, sản lượng Robusta sụt giảm đáng kể. Điều này khiến nguồn cung Robusta không đủ đáp ứng nhu cầu của người tiêu dùng, đồng thời thúc đẩy sự tăng giá bán loại cà phê này.

4. Giá dầu và tình hình giao dịch dầu trên thế giới

Các thương lái mua cà phê từ nông dân sau đó vận chuyển cà phê ở khắp các nước trên thế giới và do đó, chi phí vận chuyển cũng là một vấn đề đáng quan tâm. Việc tăng giá dầu và nhiên liệu sẽ khiến chi phí vận chuyển tăng theo, điều này cũng đẩy giá bán Robusta tăng cao hơn trước đó.

5. Ổn định chính trị

Hơn 68% hạt cà phê của thế giới đến từ bốn nước: Brazil, Việt Nam, Colombia và Indonesia. Nếu bất kỳ quốc gia nào kể trên gặp bất ổn chính trị cũng có thể ảnh hưởng đến tình hình sản xuất cà phê. Lúc này, sản lượng cà phê trên thị trường bị ảnh hưởng nghiêm trọng. Với nhu cầu cà phê ngày càng tăng nhưng nguồn cung khan hiếm sẽ tác động đến giá cà phê thế giới. Bởi vậy, thị trường phản ứng rất nhanh với bất kỳ sự kiện nào xảy ra ở bốn nước trên.

Có nên đầu tư mặt hàng cà phê Robusta khi tham gia thị trường giao dịch?

Việt Nam dẫn đầu thế giới về sản lượng cà phê Robusta nhưng giá bán chỉ khoảng 65% – 85% giá xuất khẩu các nước khác. Do phần lớn các doanh nghiệp sản xuất cà phê Robusta chỉ mới định hướng ngắn hạn trong việc kinh doanh: buôn bán để kiếm lợi nhuận theo mùa vụ, bán đồng loạt với số lượng lớn ngay đầu mùa vụ.

Tham gia thị trường giao dịch hàng hóa – một giải pháp tuyệt vời cho ngành cà phê Robusta Việt Nam. Khi tham gia vào thị trường này, Robusta sẽ ổn định hơn về giá cả, giảm rủi ro thương mại và giúp người nông dân lẫn chủ doanh nghiệp tránh được tình trạng “được mùa mất giá, được giá mất mùa”. Từ đó, khuyến khích doanh nghiệp và nông dân Việt Nam yên tâm tập trung sản xuất, khai thác hiệu quả nguồn lợi cây cà phê mang lại.

Tóm lại, từ những lợi ích trên, có thể khẳng định rằng giao dịch hàng hóa mặt hàng cà phê Robusta là một thị trường tiềm năng mà các nhà đầu tư nên “chọn mặt gửi vàng”. 

Hiện nay, khách hàng Công ty Cổ phần Giao dịch Hàng hóa Gia Cát Lợi đã có thể giao dịch mặt hàng cà phê Robusta. 

Đăng ký mở tài khoản giao dịch ngay mặt hàng cà phê Robusta


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